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The T-Grid: Verizon Droid vs. iPhone 3GS

So Verizon's Droid is official, and officially arriving a week from Friday.  I'm smart enough to know it's pointless to call any phone an iPhone killer, or even a potential iPhone killer-and that competing with the iPhone is much more about software …

Technologizer Harry McCracken

Context & Ripple Effects

Verizon had been dealing with the competitive effects of the iPhone since at least the iPhone’s earlier impact on Verizon Wireless. Its “Droid Does” advertising campaign had already framed Droid as an explicit alternative before availability was confirmed.

The comparison matters because Android and iPhone together accounted for nearly three-quarters of mobile-web browsing in April 2009 despite representing under 10% of device sales, signaling that smartphone competition was being shaped by usage and software as much as handset shipments.

First-order effects

  • Verizon gains a flagship smartphone alternative to the iPhone for subscribers choosing a device on its network, while Droid enters direct comparison with Apple’s iPhone 3GS.
  • Apple faces a carrier-backed challenge centered on software capabilities rather than a claim that any single handset can displace the iPhone outright.

Second-order effects

  • Verizon’s campaign forces the iPhone comparison onto features and web use, raising the importance of operating-system experience in carrier smartphone marketing.
  • The growing concentration of mobile-web activity in Android and iPhone devices increases the incentive for developers and web publishers to prioritize those two platforms.

Third-order effects

  • If carrier-led handset launches keep competing on software experience, smartphone advantage shifts from hardware specifications toward the broader operating-system, applications, and network proposition.
  • The contest points to a market in which carriers use flagship devices to counter rivals’ exclusive handset relationships, while platform ecosystems determine sustained user engagement.

The trend: Smartphone competition is moving from handset-versus-handset comparisons toward carrier-backed software ecosystems built around mobile-web use and applications.