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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: Advent and Stripe are no longer pursuing a deal to acquire PayPal after previously offering more than $50B for the company; PYPL closes down 12.71%

A consortium of buyout firm Advent and payment processor Stripe has decided to abandon its pursuit of fintech pioneer PayPal Holdings Inc. …

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

Stripe and Advent’s reported pursuit began with preliminary interest in PayPal or its assets and became a $60.50-per-share proposal in July. PayPal’s board had regarded that offer as too low and flagged financing and regulatory hurdles; August talks centered on PayPal seeking a higher price.

The reported abandonment removes the only disclosed buyer group from a process that had put a takeover premium into PayPal’s shares. The broad same-day pickup reflects how consequential the bid’s collapse is for both a public payments incumbent and a private payments rival.

First-order effects

  • PayPal loses the reported Stripe-Advent offer that had anchored expectations around a sale, while its 12.71% share decline immediately resets that takeover premium.
  • Stripe and Advent avoid taking on a transaction PayPal’s board had already viewed as undervalued and exposed to financing and regulatory hurdles.

Second-order effects

  • PayPal’s board must return attention to its standalone case or seek another buyer willing to clear the price and execution objections that stalled the Stripe-Advent proposal.
  • A prospective buyer of PayPal must account for the gap between the consortium’s $60.50-per-share offer and the higher price PayPal was reportedly seeking, raising the bar for any renewed process.

Third-order effects

  • If large payments-company takeovers continue to fail over valuation, financing, and regulatory execution, public fintech companies may find that takeover speculation provides less durable support than operating performance.
  • The episode points to a private-equity-backed bid for a public payments platform model in which strategic buyers can pursue scale without bearing all of the financing burden, but still face a demanding path to closing.

The trend: Large fintech M&A is increasingly shaped by whether strategic ambition can satisfy public-company valuation demands while clearing financing and regulatory constraints.

Discussion

  • @davidcrespo @davidcrespo on bluesky
    welp!  no real reason given.  it always seemed to me like an incredible pain in the ass for Stripe to bring upon themselves
  • Marcel van Oost Marcel van Oost on linkedin
    🚨 𝘽𝙍𝙀𝘼𝙆𝙄𝙉𝙂: Stripe's $53 BILLION pursuit of PayPal is DEAD. …
  • Simon Taylor Simon Taylor on linkedin
    BREAKING: Stripe and Advent have walked away from PayPal.  The $53bn deal is dead.  —  Bloomberg reported overnight that the consortium abandoned its pursuit. …
  • Michele Mattei Michele Mattei on linkedin
    Stripe and Advent end $53 billion pursuit of PayPal  —  Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have ended their $53 billion pursuit of PayPal …
  • @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on bluesky
    Stripe is no longer interested in buying PayPal.  —  After buying OpenRouter and seeing Nvidia snap up Hugging Face, maybe they're saving their money for other AI acquisitions?  🤔
  • @quinnypig Corey Quinn on x
    Ugh. Best of luck to Stripe and Advent on getting a refund from Paypal.
  • @mechachurchill Mecha Churchilll on bluesky
    Stripe must have gotten a real scary look at the PayPal infra and ran [embedded post]