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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Zillow seeking to acquire Trulia for up to $2 billion, combining the two most-visited US real estate sites

Zillow Said to Be Seeking to Buy Rival Real-Estate Site Trulia  —  Zillow Inc. is seeking to acquire rival Trulia Inc., people with knowledge of the matter said …

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

Zillow has spent years buying its way across online real estate — picking up rental site HotPads for $16 million in cash in 2012 — while its confirmed financials show the cost of that strategy: record Q1 revenue of $66.2M alongside growing net losses driven by ad spending aimed at dominating the category. A bid for Trulia would be the largest move yet in that spree.

Trulia is no stranger to suitors: Google was reported to be eyeing it for a real estate search play back in December 2009, when sites like Trulia were already seeing record traffic and revenue, and Trulia kept building through smaller deals like its Movity acquisition in 2010. Bloomberg's report that Zillow is seeking to acquire Trulia for up to $2 billion — picked up the same day by the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fortune, MarketWatch and Business Insider — would unite the two most-visited US real estate websites, per the confirmed relationship claim. The figure remains unconfirmed rumor at this point.

First-order effects

  • If the rumored up-to-$2 billion deal closes, Zillow ends its most expensive rivalry: the head-to-head consumer marketing battle with Trulia is a documented driver of Zillow's losses, so combining the top two traffic properties removes the need to outbid itself for homebuyers' attention.
  • Trulia shareholders get an exit at a premium valuation, while Zillow's premium-advertising base — real estate agents paying for leads — suddenly faces one sales organization instead of two competing portals.

Second-order effects

  • Rival listing portals such as Move/Realtor.com are forced to respond to a combined Zillow-Trulia whose share of US real estate web traffic would dwarf theirs, likely accelerating their own spending on content, mobile, and partnerships.
  • Agent advertising pricing comes under pressure from the other direction: with fewer major portals competing for agent budgets, the combined company gains leverage over lead-generation rates — the very market where Zillow has been burning cash to win share.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern points toward online real estate consolidating into one or two scale players that control the primary advertising channel between agents and homebuyers — a structure regulators are likely to examine given the confirmed status of the two sites as the category's most-visited.
  • For startups in the space, an independent Trulia disappearing behind Zillow narrows the realistic exit map: strategic buyers like the Google interest reported in 2009 give way to consolidation among the leaders themselves.

The trend: US online real estate is consolidating around traffic-scale advertising platforms, with Zillow using acquisitions to convert a costly land-grab into market control.