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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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DoCoMo Rises on Speculation Carrier to Release Apple IPhone

NTT DoCoMo Inc. (9437) rose in Tokyo trading, while rivals KDDI Corp. (9433) and SoftBank Corp. (9984) fell, after a media report suggested Japan's largest mobile carrier may start selling Apple Inc. (AAPL)'s iPhone.

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

The iPhone's absence from DoCoMo's lineup has been a six-year running storyline in Japanese mobile: Apple met with DoCoMo and SoftBank about a launch as far back as December 2007 ([[a:1182062]]), and by November 2010 DoCoMo was openly losing would-be iPhone buyers to rivals — the 'turning to the dark side' episode that documented customers defecting over the one device it didn't carry. A separate 2011 rumor cycle even pegged an LTE iPhone for DoCoMo that never materialized.

That history is why today's move matters: a media report suggesting Japan's largest carrier may finally sell the iPhone was enough to lift DoCoMo shares while KDDI and SoftBank fell in Tokyo trading. The pickup by The Next Web and 9to5Mac — twice each — shows how much attention any crack in the incumbent trio's iPhone alignment draws.

First-order effects

  • If confirmed rather than rumored, DoCoMo would plug the biggest gap in its handset lineup, directly addressing the defection problem documented since 2010, while KDDI and SoftBank lose the differentiating value of carrying Apple's flagship exclusively among the big three.

Second-order effects

  • KDDI and SoftBank would be forced to compete for iPhone buyers on subsidies, pricing, and network quality instead of availability — margin pressure for them, and added negotiating leverage for Apple as all three incumbents bid for allocation.

Third-order effects

  • With every major Japanese carrier selling the same marquee device, competition shifts from handset lineups to network performance and service bundles — and DoCoMo's LTE build-out becomes its primary pitch against the rivals that used the iPhone to take its customers.

The trend: Japan's mobile market is converging on universal iPhone availability, shifting carrier rivalry from who sells Apple's phone to who monetizes the network around it.