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Chronicles

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Machinima Wants a Mega-Round.  Who Wants to Invest in a YouTube Giant?

With more than two billion YouTube views a month, Machinima is one of the biggest players on the world's biggest video site.  —  So, how much is that worth?  —  The people who run the video network are going to find out.

AllThingsD Peter Kafka

Context & Ripple Effects

Machinima is no longer just a big YouTube channel — it is the test case for what a YouTube network is worth as a business. Google put corporate money behind the company back in May 2012 as part of YouTube's push into original content, and by late 2012 the funding climate around these networks had turned competitive: Time Warner led a $40 million round into rival Maker Studios in November, with Variety reporting media giants crowding toward YouTube's biggest players.

Now Machinima, pulling more than two billion views a month, is asking investors to price all of that at mega-round scale. The raise will be read as a market verdict on the whole category — whether distribution scale on YouTube converts into a defensible, fundable media business.

First-order effects

  • Machinima's existing backers, including Google, must now decide whether to double down at a higher price or let new capital set a valuation they may not love.
  • A successful mega-round hands Machinima war chest advantages over rivals like Maker Studios in signing creators and licensing content while both race for scale.

Second-order effects

  • Whatever valuation Machinima clears becomes the public comp for every other YouTube network's fundraising, directly shaping Maker Studios' own negotiating position with media investors.
  • Media conglomerates weighing stakes in these networks face a sharper either/or: buy influence cheaply now or pay acquisition prices once a mega-round validates the asset class.

Third-order effects

  • If the round prices richly, multi-channel networks harden into a distinct asset class sitting between Hollywood and Silicon Valley, accelerating consolidation around the few players with billion-view scale.
  • If investors balk at the ask, it forces a reckoning about whether YouTube-dependent businesses — whose economics are set largely by one platform — can justify traditional media valuations at all.

The trend: Big media and strategic investors are moving from passive admiration of YouTube's top networks to active price discovery, turning each fundraising round into a referendum on what creator-network scale is actually worth.