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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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How fast is your ISP?  A new report tells all.

Cablevision and Verizon FiOS are the mostly likely to deliver better than advertised download speeds, while any provider offering DSL — AT&T, Frontier, Windstream and CenturyLink- struggle to deliver on their promises.

GigaOM Stacey Higginbotham

Context & Ripple Effects

This report lands in an arc the corpus has been building since 2009, when Cablevision first pushed residential speeds to triple digits (its 101 Mbps tier drew early scrutiny), and it sharpens a gap the FCC itself flagged in December 2010, when it found 68% of U.S. connections running slower than advertised. A January 2012 ranking put Comcast at the top of U.S. broadband, so today's finding extends the pattern: cable is not just fastest, it over-delivers.

What changes with this report is the split by technology rather than by company. Cablevision and Verizon FiOS are the most likely to beat their advertised download speeds, while every major DSL provider named — AT&T, Frontier, Windstream and CenturyLink — struggles to hit its own promises. The pickup across FCC.gov, The Verge, Ars Technica, PC World, USA Today and others shows how much weight regulators and press now give measured-versus-advertised performance.

First-order effects

  • AT&T, Frontier, Windstream and CenturyLink face a direct credibility problem: their 'up-to' DSL marketing is now contradicted by published measurement data, inviting subscriber churn and regulatory attention.
  • Cablevision and Verizon FiOS gain a verifiable marketing claim — delivering more than advertised — that cable rivals like Comcast, already ranked fastest in January 2012, must match on measured rather than promised numbers.

Second-order effects

  • DSL operators are pushed to accelerate migration off copper: AT&T's confirmed LTE buildout, which reached 47 U.S. markets as of July 2012, becomes its answer to a wireline product that cannot keep its speed promises.
  • Advertisers' 'up-to' framing comes under pressure as measurement reports become routine, forcing ISPs to compete on delivered-speed data instead of headline tiers.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, U.S. broadband structurally divides into over-delivering cable/fiber platforms and under-delivering copper DSL, accelerating consolidation of subscribers toward the former and leaving rural DSL footprints as the industry's weak point.
  • Independent measurement regimes — FCC-published test data cited across the trade and mainstream press — harden into the de facto standard by which broadband claims are policed, shifting oversight from complaint-driven to data-driven.

The trend: Broadband competition is shifting from advertised speed tiers to independently measured delivered speeds, with cable and fiber pulling ahead of DSL on both performance and trust.