Nintendo's hard choices for a soft landing
But with that Wii boom waning, the successor being prepared by the creator of Super Mario looks like a losing proposition as Apple Inc and other smartphone and tablet makers take gaming to the bathroom, the commuter bus and back to the bedroom.
Context & Ripple Effects
Two years ago Nintendo told the Times of London it was ready to go to war as rivals invaded its patch; this Reuters piece is the counterpoint, arguing the war is going badly. With the Wii boom confirmed waning and Apple and other smartphone and tablet makers pulling gaming into bathrooms, buses and bedrooms, the unnamed Wii successor is framed by analysts as a losing proposition before launch.
The framing travelled quickly — parislemon picked up the story the same day — which matters because the critique targets not the hardware itself but Nintendo's refusal to follow its audience onto general-purpose devices, a bet the company was still making publicly in April 2012.
First-order effects
- Nintendo heads into the Wii successor's launch with analysts publicly calling the proposition a loser, undercutting the pre-order enthusiasm a new console launch normally generates among core buyers.
- Apple and other mobile device makers are now direct competitors for playtime rather than adjacent players — every hour of bathroom-and-commute gaming is an hour not spent with a Nintendo machine in the living room.
Second-order effects
- Third-party publishers weighing where to put development budgets face a starker choice between Nintendo's dedicated hardware and the enormous installed base of smartphones and tablets, pressuring the Wii successor's software lineup.
- If the successor underperforms as analysts expect, Nintendo's leverage over retail shelf space and licensing terms weakens, shifting bargaining power toward the mobile platforms it refuses to serve.
Third-order effects
- The durable question raised here is whether exclusive first-party IP like Super Mario can anchor a dedicated-hardware business when general-purpose devices absorb casual play — the exclusivity economics that carried the Wii era get tested directly by the successor's fate.
- If the losing-proposition read holds, dedicated-console makers face a structural squeeze in which their addressable market shrinks to enthusiasts, forcing eventual strategy reversals on mobile that would have been unthinkable during the boom.
The trend: Gaming's centre of gravity is migrating from dedicated living-room consoles toward the smartphones and tablets people already carry, leaving platform holders like Nintendo to compete on exclusive IP rather than hardware reach.