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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Why Is AT&T Releasing Nokia's Big Phone on Easter?

AT&T has said that the release of the Nokia Lumia 900 will be its biggest product introduction ever.  But the phone is coming out on Easter Sunday, when some AT&T stores won't even be open.  —  Melissa Havel, a spokeswoman representing Microsoft …

Bits Brian X. Chen

Context & Ripple Effects

The Lumia 900 has been a slow burn toward this weekend: AT&T and Verizon were testing the 4G LTE handset back in December 2011, the debut then slipped to April 22 at $99.99 before being pulled forward, and by late March demo units were already sitting in stores ahead of an April 9 release. Nokia has backed the push with a US 'Beta Test' advertising campaign, and AT&T is framing it as its biggest product introduction ever.

The oddity the story turns on is the calendar: landing the launch on Easter Sunday, when some AT&T stores will not open at all, undercuts the retail moment the 'biggest ever' framing implies. The syndication footprint — gdgt, The Verge, eWeek, All About Windows Phone and others picking up the same question — shows how much attention rides on whether Windows Phone can finally land a flagship.

First-order effects

  • AT&T's own launch-day capacity is constrained: marketing and Nokia's ad campaign drive customers to stores that are closed or thinly staffed on Easter, so first-weekend sales depend on Monday traffic rather than day-one lines.
  • The $99.99 price puts the Lumia 900 head-to-head with subsidized iPhones in AT&T's lineup at the exact moment AT&T begins unlocking off-contract iPhones on April 8, giving upgraders a cheaper iPhone path on the same weekend.

Second-order effects

  • Microsoft's wallet does the heavy lifting where the store shelves can't: subsidies of up to $600,000 per app are propping up a catalog of roughly 70,000 apps, meaning the launch's success depends as much on closing the app gap as on AT&T's retail execution.
  • Rival carriers watching the launch decide whether to match the subsidy-and-marketing template for Windows Phone handsets, or let AT&T carry the ecosystem alone.

Third-order effects

  • If carrier-subsidized flagships plus Microsoft's per-app bounties still cannot buy shelf presence and launch momentum, Windows Phone's bid to be the third mobile ecosystem shifts from hardware-led to ecosystem-led — with Nokia's US fortunes increasingly hostage to AT&T's merchandising decisions rather than its own engineering.

The trend: Carriers have become the kingmakers of third-party mobile ecosystems, with AT&T's launch execution and Microsoft's developer subsidies, not handset specs, deciding whether Windows Phone gets a foothold in the US.