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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Exclusive: Google, Amazon, and Microsoft Swarm China for Network Gear

Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook buy more networking hardware than practically anyone else on earth.  After all, these are the giants of the internet.  But at the same time, they're buying less and less gear from Cisco …

Wired Cade Metz

Context & Ripple Effects

Five years ago the power shift between Cisco and the web giants ran one way: Google overtook Cisco as Silicon Valley's most valuable company in June 2007, a market-cap milestone that still left Cisco owning the actual plumbing. This Wired report shows the displacement moving down into the purchase order itself — the four companies that buy more networking hardware than almost anyone on earth (Google chief among them) confirmed buying less of it from Cisco.

The story travelled fast for an infrastructure piece, with same-day pickups on Slashdot and SlashGear putting it in front of exactly the operator and engineering audience that sets hyperscale procurement policy. That reception matters because buying behavior at this scale is a signal other large data-center operators read and follow.

First-order effects

  • Cisco loses volume from its single largest customer class — Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Facebook — whose confirmed shift toward Chinese suppliers directly erodes the high-margin switching and routing business that anchored its model.
  • Chinese networking-hardware vendors gain hyperscale-grade validation and volume, the kind of reference customers that make enterprise buyers elsewhere take a second look.

Second-order effects

  • Pricing pressure lands on the remaining Western enterprise-networking incumbents, who must defend share against suppliers whose cost floor is set by Chinese manufacturing rather than premium-brand margins.
  • The hyperscalers' demonstrated willingness to walk gives them stronger leverage over every remaining vendor relationship — specs, pricing, and roadmap concessions flow toward whoever can credibly source elsewhere.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, datacenter networking drifts from branded, vendor-designed boxes toward hardware built to hyperscaler specification from the cheapest qualified supplier — turning the big internet companies from Cisco's best customers into its structural competitors, though how far any of them go toward selling gear themselves is uncharted as of April 2012.
  • A supply chain increasingly routed through Chinese network-gear makers sets up a longer-term collision between hyperscale cost logic and the security-and-procurement politics that govern telecom infrastructure purchases.

The trend: Hyperscale operators are vertically disintermediating their infrastructure supply chains, trading branded Western equipment for cheaper specified hardware and steadily stripping margin out of enterprise networking.