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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Facebook Valued at $102.8 Billion in Last SharesPost Auction

Facebook Inc. (FB)'s implied valued rose 8.9 percent to $102.8 billion in what is expected to be the last auction of its stock on SharesPost Inc.'s exchange before the social-networking company's initial public offering.

Bloomberg Brian Womack

Context & Ripple Effects

Facebook's private valuation has climbed steadily through the secondary market — $56 billion in a significantly oversubscribed auction in December 2010, then $87.5 billion by May 2011 — and the latest SharesPost clearing pushes it past $100 billion for the first time. An 8.9% rise this late in the cycle matters less for the level than for the timing: this is expected to be the final auction before an IPO, so it functions as a last private-market read on demand.

The story travelled widely on pickup day — Los Angeles Times, VentureBeat, The Next Web and others all ran it — reflecting how closely every print in these auctions was being watched as a proxy for where the IPO might land.

First-order effects

  • Pre-IPO shareholders get their last organized secondary-market exit at a $102.8 billion mark-up; after this auction, liquidity shifts entirely to the public offering process.
  • The auction hands Facebook's bankers a fresh, arms-length price point to anchor IPO marketing against, weeks before roadshow pricing.

Second-order effects

  • SharesPost loses its marquee listing — the company whose repeated auctions built the exchange's profile — forcing it to prove depth with the rest of its late-stage book.
  • Other late-stage private companies gain a demonstrated template: run periodic auctions to set marks and satisfy shareholder demand rather than raising new primary rounds just to refresh the price.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern holds, secondary exchanges like SharesPost become standing price-discovery venues that compress the information gap between private and public markets, pressuring issuers and underwriters to treat auction prints as quasi-official benchmarks.
  • A sustained $100-billion-plus private valuation for one company also strengthens the case among later startups and their investors for staying private longer, since late-stage liquidity no longer requires an immediate IPO.

The trend: Private-company share auctions are maturing into de facto pre-IPO price discovery, with each successive mark narrowing the distance between the secondary market and the offering itself.