Apple Doesn't Need To Make the TV of the Future
The revolution is already here—and it's called the Xbox. — If the rumors are true, Apple will release a television set later this year that it will tout as the most amazing boob tube ever invented. Apple's TV will be able to access shows …
Context & Ripple Effects
The Apple-television rumor has been running since at least August 2011, when sources told VentureBeat the company was working on a television for 2012, and the New York Times' Bits blog followed in October with its own take on what's really next for Apple in television. Slate's argument lands mid-cycle: rather than asking whether the rumored set will ship, it contends the target experience — apps, streaming, no channel guide — is already shipping on Microsoft's Xbox.
What makes the piece more than contrarian framing is what else ran the same day across the syndication network: GigaOM on Comcast's data-cap dispute over the Xbox, and SplatF reporting that HBO Go on Xbox is a no-go for Comcast and Time Warner Cable customers. Those stories expose the real bottleneck any new TV device faces — cable operators deciding which apps their subscribers may reach.
First-order effects
- If Apple does release a television set in 2012 as rumored, it enters a market where Microsoft's Xbox already aggregates the streaming-app experience the set would be pitched on — so Apple competes against an installed console base, not dumb displays.
- Microsoft gains an unexpected ally in its positioning: an influential opinion outlet arguing the revolution is here means the Xbox gets credited with the vision Apple's set would claim.
Second-order effects
- Cable operators hold the choke point either way: Comcast and Time Warner Cable customers being blocked from HBO Go on Xbox shows that carriage disputes and data caps can throttle any third-party box or set, Apple's included.
- Content owners like HBO face pressure to keep their apps carrier-neutral, since every gatekeeping deal pushes viewers toward whichever platform — console or connected TV — actually delivers the service.
Third-order effects
- If this pattern holds, the living-room battle shifts decisively from display hardware to distribution rights: the winner is whoever negotiates app access past the cable operators, and TV manufacturers risk becoming commodity glass.
- Carrier gatekeeping of device apps is the kind of conduct that invites regulatory attention, echoing the net-neutrality fight onto the set-top and television itself — though whether US or European regulators move is genuinely unresolved.
The trend: Television's value is migrating from screen hardware to software platforms and app-distribution rights, with cable operators' gatekeeping — not display technology — setting the pace of disruption.