2012 iPad Roadmap: Don't Expect a 7-Incher
With strong demand for the Kindle Fire and Nook driving demand for 7-inch displays above the 9.7-inch tablet display size popularized by the iPad, rumors are circulating once again that Apple may be planning a 7-inch tablet of its own.
Context & Ripple Effects
This piece is a counterweight to the sourcing wave of mid-December 2011, when DigiTimes reported Apple would launch a 7.85-inch iPad in 2012 with production starting in Q2. AllThingsD's argument is that strong Kindle Fire and Nook sales have pulled display demand toward 7-inch panels, reviving speculation that Apple must follow.
The skepticism has history behind it: an almost identical rumor ran in August 2010, when PC World reported Apple would ship a 7-inch iPad by Christmas — a device that never appeared. The pattern matters because it shows the 7-inch story resurfaces whenever rival small tablets gain traction, regardless of new sourcing.
First-order effects
- Display suppliers face a real allocation question: Kindle Fire and Nook volume is pulling 7-inch panel demand above the 9.7-inch size Apple popularized, and suppliers must decide whether to bet capacity on a segment Apple may never enter.
Second-order effects
- If Apple stays at 9.7 inches through 2012, Amazon and Barnes & Noble get the sub-$250 tablet tier largely uncontested through the holiday season, letting the Fire and Nook establish price expectations before any Apple response.
Third-order effects
- A repeat of the 2010 pattern — rumor, denial-by-silence, no product — would harden the view that Apple deliberately cedes the small-tablet tier rather than missing it, structurally splitting the market into a premium 9.7-inch-plus segment and a budget 7-inch one.
The trend: Tablet market structure is bifurcating into a premium large-format tier anchored by Apple and a budget 7-inch tier driven by Amazon and Barnes & Noble, with every gap in Apple's lineup reliably filled by rumor cycles.