How many iOS devices will be sold in 2012?
There are several methods I turn to when estimating device sales. — Top-Down Demand analysis — The first is to look at so-called top-down views of the demand. This method takes a view of the overall phone market and assumes share for smart devices and …
Context & Ripple Effects
Asymco has been building a public track record on iOS forecasting all year — its March 2011 piece on predicting iPhone sales with simple models was the last major entry before this one. What changes here is scope: instead of one product line, the method now covers the whole iOS family, which matters because the device mix is lopsided — back in September 2010 the iPod touch alone accounted for 37.7% of all iOS devices sold, so any whole-platform estimate lives or dies on how you treat non-phone devices.
The piece is also a methodology disclosure rather than just a number: by walking through top-down demand analysis — sizing the overall phone market and assuming smart-device share — the analyst hands readers the assumptions they need to audit the forecast, not just the output.
First-order effects
- Anyone tracking Apple gets a checkable benchmark: the published 2012 estimate and its stated assumptions can be scored against actual quarterly shipments as the year unfolds.
Second-order effects
- If whole-platform volume estimates gain credibility over single-product guesses, sell-side and independent analysts are pushed to publish full iOS-family models — including iPod touch and iPad assumptions — rather than iPhone-only numbers.
Third-order effects
- The deeper shift is from unit-share arguments toward installed-base thinking: once forecasts count every active iOS device regardless of type, the natural next metric is what each of those devices yields in services and content revenue — the framing behind Asymco's later work on lifetime iOS ecosystem value and questions like how many Americans will use an iPhone at market saturation.
The trend: Apple analysis is moving from reacting to quarterly unit surprises toward model-based forecasting of the cumulative iOS installed base, where device mix and per-device revenue matter more than any single quarter.