BlackBerry 7 sales sputter after strong start
It's not looking good for RIM and its BlackBerry smartphones. — Research in Motion is stuck between an Apple and an Ice Cream Sandwich. — After some initial excitement for the new line of BlackBerry 7 smartphones and a strong launch …
Context & Ripple Effects
The BlackBerry 7 fade repeats a pattern RIM knows well: the Torch managed only about 150,000 units at its 2010 launch, and now the new line's early excitement has cooled within weeks of hitting shelves. A 2008 warning that RIM could rot under economic pressure reads, three years on, less like a scare piece than a first draft of this story.
What changed is the squeeze on both sides: Apple's iPhone keeps pulling premium buyers — its Mac even hit a 15-year-high 5% PC share in the September quarter on Asia-Pacific strength — while Android's Ice Cream Sandwich refresh gives carriers a fresh flagship alternative. BlackBerry 7 launched into the narrowest competitive window RIM has faced.
First-order effects
- RIM heads into the critical holiday quarter with a flagship lineup whose demand curve has already flattened, putting carrier sell-through and RIM's own revenue guidance at risk.
- Carriers and retailers that stocked up on BlackBerry 7 inventory for the launch now face slower turns, making them more cautious about committing shelf space to the brand.
Second-order effects
- With iPhone and Ice Cream Sandwich devices absorbing consumer attention, carriers gain leverage to shift subsidies, marketing, and prime display space away from BlackBerry toward the two ecosystems customers are asking for.
- Weaker sell-through pressures RIM on price — deeper discounts or aggressive carrier promotions become the likely response, compressing the margins that fund its next-generation platform work.
Third-order effects
- If every RIM launch follows the same spike-and-fade shape, the structural question stops being about any single handset and becomes whether carriers will keep treating BlackBerry as a tier-one platform while it waits on an OS transition.
- The broader consolidation around iOS and Android leaves third-platform vendors like RIM dependent on enterprise lock-in and carrier goodwill — assets that erode faster than installed bases once consumer mindshare flips.
The trend: Smartphone demand is consolidating around the iOS and Android ecosystems, shrinking the launch window in which legacy platforms like BlackBerry can convert initial excitement into sustained sales.