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Google+: Overall visits decreases, male users increase

Google+ has been around for nearly a month now, still locked down under invite-only mode.  Traffic has decreased slightly, but it's not time to spell out the end of the site just yet.  —  Last week, Experian Hitwise found …

Between the Lines Blog Rachel King

Context & Ripple Effects

Eleven days after a widely shared estimate put Google+'s user base at just 33% female, Experian Hitwise's visit data now shows the opposite drift: the site's audience is skewing more male even as overall visits dip slightly during its first month in invite-only mode.

First-order effects

  • Google faces its first measurable growth stall barely a month into launch, with Hitwise — not Google itself, which publishes no usage figures while invites are locked down — controlling the public narrative around the product's traction.
  • The shift toward a more male audience reverses the early July reading of 33% female, narrowing the demographic diversity Google needs to argue Google+ is a general-purpose network rather than a tech-early-adopter club.

Second-order effects

  • With no official numbers available during the invite-only period, third-party measurement firms like Experian Hitwise become the de facto scorekeepers, meaning each weekly panel release can swing perception of the launch faster than Google's own announcements.

Third-order effects

  • If invite scarcity keeps curving traffic before open registration, Google+ risks hardening into the pattern where an exclusive-access launch inflates initial curiosity and then deflates it — making the eventual decision to open the gates the real test of whether demand exists beyond the invited cohort.

The trend: Social-network launches are increasingly judged in public by third-party traffic panels rather than company-reported figures, with invite-only gating turning early curiosity curves into the story itself.