Android Share Surges Again, Apple Gains A Bit, RIM Destroyed
New data from comScore on the U.S. smartphone market shows Android share is still surging, while Apple is just barely growing share. — Research in Motion and Microsoft, on the other hand are being destroyed.
Context & Ripple Effects
This is the second straight year of the same comScore pattern: back in April 2010, Android was already gaining on the iPhone in U.S. share, and the new June 2011 reading shows that gain compounding while Apple's own growth stays marginal. The story of this data point is less Android-versus-Apple than the collapse of the third tier — Research In Motion and Microsoft are both shrinking at the same time.
That matters because a three-way smartphone market was the assumption most carrier and developer planning rested on through 2010; comScore's numbers now show the middle being squeezed out rather than shared.
First-order effects
- RIM and Microsoft lose U.S. share simultaneously, leaving each with a shrinking installed base exactly when app ecosystems are becoming the main purchase driver.
- Apple holds its position but grows only marginally against Android's surge, meaning Android captures most of every new U.S. smartphone buyer coming off a feature phone or an abandoned BlackBerry.
Second-order effects
- Carriers facing two healthy platforms instead of four gain bargaining leverage over RIM and Microsoft, whose devices become filler inventory rather than anchor lineups.
- Developers prioritize Android alongside iOS for U.S. launches, raising the cost for Microsoft of attracting apps to whatever platform strategy it pursues next.
Third-order effects
- If the squeeze continues, the U.S. market consolidates into a two-platform structure — Apple versus Android — with former RIM and Microsoft users absorbed mostly by whichever ecosystem their carrier pushes.
- Share measurement itself becomes a battleground: as comScore readings drive headlines quarter after quarter, platform fortunes get narrated through survey share rather than device revenue or profitability.
The trend: U.S. smartphones are consolidating into an Apple-versus-Android duopoly, with legacy platforms like RIM and Windows being priced out of the conversation.