iPhone 5 Production Starting In September According To Talks With Key Supplier
Apple's new iPhone 5 should go into production in September says Avian Securities in a note this morning. — This suggests the iPhone won't be on the market until the end of this year, or even early next year possibly, says Avian.
Context & Ripple Effects
This is a supply-chain check, not an announcement: Avian Securities dates iPhone 5 production to September based on what it calls talks with a key supplier, and Apple has confirmed nothing. What lends the timing credibility is the demand picture already in the corpus — Ticonderoga's Brian White reported Apple's overseas suppliers posting a [[a:none|141% year-over-year March sales increase]], driven largely by iPad 2 strength.
Why it matters: a September production start pushes retail availability toward year-end at the earliest, per Avian's own read. That compresses the entire iPhone 5 build into the holiday quarter, right as the same supplier base is running flat out on iPad 2 volume — a collision of two ramp curves inside one manufacturing network.
First-order effects
- Apple would ship its next iPhone well past the window buyers and carriers expect, leaving Verizon — which just added the iPhone — selling the current model deeper into the holiday season before any next-generation reset.
- Component suppliers get a compressed build schedule: a September start concentrates iPhone 5 volume into the final quarter, on top of the iPad 2 ramp already behind their 141% March sales jump.
Second-order effects
- Suppliers face a capacity-allocation squeeze between iPad 2 orders and a late-starting iPhone build, shifting bargaining power over assembly-line allocation toward whoever Apple names lead manufacturer.
- Carrier economics stretch: a year-end-or-later iPhone 5 gives Verizon another full selling season of the existing device before upgrade demand re-concentrates around the new model.
Third-order effects
- Apple's launch timing is increasingly disclosed through analyst checks of its supplier base rather than by Apple itself, making notes like Avian's the de facto information channel for the product calendar.
- If late, compressed builds become the pattern, Apple's supplier revenue concentrates into fewer quarters, amplifying the order-flow swings already visible in the March supplier numbers.
The trend: Apple's product roadmap is migrating from company announcements to supply-chain intelligence, with analyst conversations with component makers setting public launch expectations.