Verizon grabs 12% of U.S. iPhone market in just one month
Mobile analytics company Chitika has been keeping a running tally of just how many iPhones are running on both AT&T and Verizon. Using the data flowing across its ad network, the company has calculated that almost 1 out of every 8 iPhones …
Context & Ripple Effects
When Verizon began carrying the iPhone in early 2011, analysts framed it as a question of headroom: Silicon Alley Insider argued in January that only 26% of Verizon subscribers had smartphones, meaning most of Verizon's base was still upgradeable, while asymco noted the stark AT&T baseline of 15 iPhone users per AT&T Android user and asked what ratio Verizon would settle at.
The first hard datapoint arrived with Verizon clearing one million units sold by late February, and Chitika's ad-network tally now puts the answer to that ratio question at roughly 1-in-8 U.S. iPhones on Verizon within a month of availability — an adoption curve measured in weeks, not quarters.
First-order effects
- Verizon has converted pent-up demand on its network into 12% of the U.S. iPhone installed base almost immediately, validating the January thesis that its under-penetrated subscriber base was the real prize for Apple.
- AT&T now shares the iPhone exclusively no longer: every future iPhone sale splits between two networks, and AT&T's retention levers — like the 1,000 rollover-minute loyalty giveaway it ran in February — become the front line against defection at contract renewal.
Second-order effects
- With most of Verizon's base still on feature phones, Verizon's marketing and inventory push shifts toward converting those upgraders to iPhones, putting direct pressure on Android handset partners who had the carrier to themselves until this year.
- AT&T faces a squeeze from both ends: losing iPhone-bound switchers to Verizon while simultaneously monetizing its remaining base harder, visible already in the confirmed 150GB DSL usage cap and overage fees it begins notifying customers about ahead of a May 2 start.
Third-order effects
- Carrier exclusivity as a device-launch strategy is effectively dead in the U.S.: Apple's willingness to ship the same flagship across competing networks forces carriers to compete on service, pricing, and caps rather than on access, and makes third-party measurement layers like Chitika's ad-network tallies a standard way to read market share between quarterly reports.
The trend: The iPhone is shifting from a single-carrier weapon to a multi-carrier commodity in the U.S., with network choice migrating from Apple's decisions to consumers', and carriers responding with retention perks and usage-based pricing.