Mobile Data Explosion: 75 Exabytes by 2015
Worldwide mobile data traffic is due to increase 26-fold to 75 exabytes annually, says networking giant Cisco in its latest report, the Cisco Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast for 2010 to 2015.
Context & Ripple Effects
This is Cisco's second high-profile Visual Networking Index release in four months, following its October 2010 internet-traffic forecast, and it extends the franchise into mobile specifically. The numbers land at a moment when Cisco has been repositioning around traffic rather than devices: it bought IP-video software firm ExtendMedia in August 2010, and CEO John Chambers has said Cisco would rather build the networking that supports handsets from RIM, Apple, and Palm than sell phones of its own.
The 26-fold projection matters because it comes from the vendor that would supply much of the gear a buildout of that scale implies — the VNI is simultaneously a research series and an argument for buying routers and switches. With prior_coverage thin, the arc here rests on Cisco's own publishing rhythm and its video-infrastructure acquisition.
First-order effects
- Mobile operators staring down a 26-fold traffic increase by 2015 face immediate capacity decisions — spectrum, backhaul, and offload — while Cisco, which published the forecast, is positioned as a primary supplier of exactly that equipment.
- Cisco's ExtendMedia acquisition gives it an IP video stack to attach to this growth story, letting it sell content-delivery capability alongside raw transport.
Second-order effects
- Rival networking vendors gain a ready-made counter-forecast opportunity, since whoever controls the headline numbers shapes carrier capital-planning conversations.
- If mobile video drives the curve as Cisco's framing suggests, carriers lean harder on Wi-Fi offload and tiered pricing to keep the projected volume from overwhelming flat-rate plans.
Third-order effects
- A sustained 26-fold trajectory would migrate the network bottleneck from wired access to mobile core and backhaul, making wireless the default path to the internet and reordering where operators spend.
- Vendor-published traffic indexes risk becoming a standing input to the industry's capital cycle, with each annual revision nudging investment expectations up or down.
The trend: Mobile networks are on track to become the dominant route for global internet traffic, with vendor forecasts like Cisco's VNI setting the tempo for carrier infrastructure spending.