Chalking up the Windows Phone 7 launch
SAN FRANCISCO—If Microsoft hopes to get back in the smartphone game, it had better hope that Windows Phone 7 makes a bigger impact than it appeared to be having at one AT&T store here. — As of midday Monday, the store had sold less than half of its supply of 20 devices.
Context & Ripple Effects
Microsoft's US launch of Windows Phone 7 lands a week after devices went on sale in Europe, closing out an October rollout that began overseas. The stakes were set days earlier when analysts warned that supply shortages could undercut the US launch, making sell-through at retail the metric to watch.
The early read from San Francisco is unimpressive: as of midday Monday, one AT&T store had moved fewer than half of its 20-device allocation, and a same-day US availability report frames this as launch day itself rather than a post-launch lull. A Windows Media Center extender glitch reported over the weekend adds a second narrative — execution stumbles — to the slow-start story.
First-order effects
- AT&T's thin per-store allocations (20 devices here) mean carriers bear little inventory risk, but Microsoft gets almost no retail presence to build launch momentum against entrenched iOS and Android shelves.
Second-order effects
- If sell-through stays soft through the holiday quarter, carrier buyers will cut reorders and shelf space before Christmas, forcing Microsoft to lean harder on marketing spend and developer assurances that the installed base justifies building apps.
Third-order effects
- A weak debut pressures the 'third ecosystem' thesis: if Windows Phone 7 cannot convert carrier distribution into consumer demand, handset makers hedge toward Android and the market consolidates around two app platforms.
The trend: Smartphone platforms are consolidating fast enough that a third entrant's fate is decided in its first weeks of carrier sell-through, not by subsequent product cycles.