January Jones
Regarding the idea that Apple may be preparing to launch a CDMA iPhone 4 on Verizon in January, DF reader email suggests there are two aspects to the story that lead to skepticism. First, the timing. Why launch in January? Second: the network technology. Why CDMA?
Context & Ripple Effects
The January-Verizon-iPhone story has been building all year: Verizon began preparing for the iPhone back in December 2009, and a January report described Apple and Verizon still disagreeing over CDMA iPhone pricing. Days ago, TechCrunch argued the rumors are true and pinned a January CDMA iPhone 4 launch, giving the claim its most specific form yet.
Daring Fireball pushes back on exactly that specificity, flagging two weak points: why January, and why CDMA — a technology Apple's GSM-based iPhone has never targeted. The skepticism lands against a busy backdrop: Verizon had just confirmed the Motorola Droid 2 at $200 with contract, keeping its Android flagship line front and center, while the Google-Verizon net neutrality framework was drawing heavy public criticism.
First-order effects
- If DF's doubts hold, AT&T retains US iPhone exclusivity through the 2010 holiday season and the rumor cycle resets with no named player worse off.
- If TechCrunch's sourcing proves right instead, Verizon faces an immediate product-line conflict: a January CDMA iPhone arriving just after it has re-upped the Droid 2 as its $200 Android headline device.
Second-order effects
- A January window rather than November would let Verizon sell iPhones outside the holiday quarter, protecting Droid sales during peak season — which is precisely the kind of commercial logic that makes the timing question DF raises answerable.
- The unresolved pricing dispute reported between Apple and Verizon in January indicates that even a technically ready CDMA handset stalls until subsidy economics are settled, keeping pressure on both sides' negotiation positions.
Third-order effects
- A CDMA iPhone would mean Apple building carrier-specific radio variants again, fracturing its single-hardware-SKU model and making network technology choice a per-market strategic decision rather than a fixed constraint.
- If the exclusivity era ends, US smartphone competition shifts from 'which carrier has the iPhone' to which carrier bundles it best alongside its own Android lineup — a structure Verizon's Droid strategy is already built for.
The trend: The US iPhone is moving from single-carrier exclusivity toward multi-carrier distribution, with each new rumor cycle testing how and when that wall breaks.