iPad is just the beginning
The media pad market is brand new. And it's not going to be stuck at a 9.7-inch diagonal. — So, no one should be surprised by rumors about Apple bringing out more tablets (or tablet-like devices) beyond the current 9.7-inch iPad.
Context & Ripple Effects
The tablet story has been building for over a year: Silicon Alley Insider flagged an Apple tablet arriving in 2010 back in May 2009, and by March 2010 Computerworld reported Arm expected more than 50 iPad-like devices this year from its licensees. The iPad shipped into exactly that crowded field.
This piece argues the obvious next move: with the media pad category brand new, no one should be surprised that Apple is rumored (emphasis on rumored) to be working on tablets beyond the current 9.7-inch diagonal — meaning the iPad is positioned as a line, not a single device.
First-order effects
- Apple's rumored second and third tablet sizes would let it bracket the market itself rather than cede smaller or larger diagonals to the 50-plus ARM-based rivals already shipping in 2010.
- Buyers choosing among the incoming wave of iPad-like devices would face Apple competing across form factors instead of only at 9.7 inches.
Second-order effects
- The ARM licensees behind those 50-plus devices would be squeezed into differentiating on price and software rather than screen size, since Apple could occupy multiple diagonals of its own.
- Display and component suppliers would see demand split across several tablet sizes per vendor, changing which panel specifications win volume orders.
Third-order effects
- If Apple extends the iPad into a family of sizes, the 'media pad' settles into a distinct product category between phone and laptop, forcing every PC maker to decide whether tablets replace netbooks or cannibalize their own laptops.
- A multi-size iPad line would also set up the competitive question rivals were already asking — what justifies buying anything else — as the category's structure hardened around Apple's pricing ladder.
The trend: The tablet market is moving from a single 9.7-inch reference design toward multi-size product lines, as Apple expands beyond the original iPad while dozens of ARM-licensee challengers arrive.