Could ‘Menlo’ signal a change in Microsoft's mobile strategy?
I've been digging for a few months for information about two new Microsoft codenames and have come up with few clues. But I've decided to share what I have been able to surface in the hopes that others who might have additional pieces to share might help fill things in.
Context & Ripple Effects
The 'Menlo' codename lands in the middle of an unusually leaky stretch for Microsoft's mobile ambitions. A September 2009 report claimed Microsoft would show two iPhone competitors in 2010, and the company followed that with a deliberately cryptic mystery event in early April 2010 — so every new fragment of codename chatter gets read against the expectation that a mobile reveal is imminent.
What little is known is unconfirmed: the author himself frames this as months of digging with 'few clues,' and the story's main syndicated echo was a single rebuttal-style post titled 'Windows CE is NOT dead!' — which tells you the live question among watchers is whether Microsoft's next mobile effort builds on the old CE foundation or abandons it.
First-order effects
- Scrutiny on Microsoft's mobile roadmap intensifies: with a rumored pair of iPhone competitors expected during 2010, any detail attached to 'Menlo' feeds directly into what partners and press expect those devices to be.
- The codename becomes a proxy fight over Windows CE's fate — if 'Menlo' runs on a CE-derived base, Microsoft's legacy embedded platform stays strategically alive; if not, it is effectively being sunset for phones.
Second-order effects
- Hardware partners face a platform-count problem: Ballmer's CES-unveiled HP Windows 7 tablet already has Microsoft leaning on desktop Windows for slates, and a separate mobile codebase would force OEMs to commit across more than one Microsoft foundation heading into the holiday cycle.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — codenames and leaks doing the announcing ahead of formal strategy — Microsoft's mobile direction gets set in public by accumulation of fragments rather than a single roadmap statement, raising fragmentation risk across its own device platforms until the company commits to one.
The trend: Microsoft's mobile strategy in 2010 is being negotiated in public through codenames and leaks, with each fragment weighed for whether it consolidates or multiplies the company's device platforms.