Exclusive: Android Froyo to take a serious shot at stemming platform fragmentation
We had a couple people at CTIA last week — people whose words carry weight — tell us off the record that the next major version of Android would take big strides toward stopping the ugly trend toward severe fragmentation …
Context & Ripple Effects
Google has spent the past year watching Android go from slow starter to the software story of CES 2010, with a survey by early January showing the OS finally roiling the smartphone market. But the same surge created the problem this report addresses: carriers and OEMs shipping divergent builds on their own schedules, a dynamic critics had already framed as a short circuit in the Android open-source model by late 2009.
The claim itself is unconfirmed — unnamed sources at the show where Erick Tseng had already confirmed the 'Froyo' name back in January reportedly told Engadget the next major version takes big strides against fragmentation. If accurate, it marks the first time Google is said to be attacking fragmentation at the platform level rather than leaving it to market forces.
First-order effects
- Developers targeting Android would get a more consistent API baseline in Froyo, reducing the per-device testing burden that divergent carrier and manufacturer builds currently impose.
- Handset makers and carriers whose skins and custom builds are the main fragmentation vector would face direct pressure from the platform owner to rein in divergence.
Second-order effects
- OEM differentiation strategies built on heavy UI customization collide with a platform owner pushing coherence, forcing manufacturers to choose between brand-level skinning and faster upgrade paths.
- A more uniform Android lowers development costs enough to pull additional app publishers toward the platform, compounding the app-catalog advantage Distimo already documented in tools and applications buying.
Third-order effects
- If Google follows through, the episode signals a structural shift in Android's governance: the open-source model bending toward tighter central control whenever fragmentation threatens the platform's economics, a tension inherent to any gatekeeper managing an 'open' ecosystem.
- Sustained anti-fragmentation effort would push the industry toward platform owners arbitrating what device makers may change — a precedent extending well beyond phones.
The trend: As Android scales from challenger to volume leader, Google is being forced to trade some of the openness that fueled its growth for the platform coherence its developers and users need.