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Sprint to launch 4G network in at least 8 major markets this year

If you're reading this, chances are pretty good that you're not on a 4G connection.  Why?  Because outside of a handful of cities, 4G connections just don't exist yet.  —  Take Sprint's WiMax network, for example …

MobileCrunch Greg Kumparak

Context & Ripple Effects

This announcement is the execution step behind the strategy laid out in Sprint Banking on WiMax to Win Back Market Share last September: after losing ground on 3G, Sprint is trying to own the next generation before its rivals get there. The company's WiMax footprint today covers only a handful of cities, so committing to at least eight major markets within 2010 is the difference between a technology demo and an actual network.

First-order effects

  • In each of the eight launch markets, Sprint becomes the only carrier selling true mobile broadband, giving it a temporary speed monopoly it can market against Verizon and AT&T's 3G networks.
  • Device makers building WiMax-capable handsets and modems gain their first real addressable audience beyond the handful of existing cities, de-risking their Sprint-specific hardware bets.

Second-order effects

  • A competing wireless broadband standard was already encroaching on WiMax's position as of late 2009, so every market Sprint lights up raises the pressure on LTE-backers to announce comparable launch timelines rather than cede the '4G first' framing.
  • If the rumored Walmart build-out partnership proves real, mass-retail distribution would put Sprint's network expansion in front of prepaid and budget buyers — a segment the carrier's turnaround plan has leaned on via exclusives like the Palm Pre — though that deal remains unconfirmed.

Third-order effects

  • WiMax's stated trajectory of serving more than 80 U.S. cities by the end of 2010, if met, would make raw data speed the primary axis of U.S. carrier competition and force a capital-spending arms race regardless of which standard ultimately wins.
  • An eight-market year also sets up the credibility test for '4G' itself: if marketing outruns coverage, carriers' generational labels risk becoming branding exercises rather than engineering facts.

The trend: U.S. mobile broadband is entering a two-standard race between WiMax and LTE, with Sprint wagering its market-share recovery on being first to scale.