What I Hope Apple Unleashes Tomorrow
Tomorrow Apple's having an event here in San Francisco and everyone's expecting them to launch some sort of tablet computer. The specifics are still unclear, but people are expecting something that looks like an iPhone but bigger, with an interface that can handle more complicated tasks.
Context & Ripple Effects
The run-up has been unusually public for an unannounced product: a month ago Silicon Alley Insider reported that Apple would demo its tablet in January and had asked developers to get their apps ready, which is why speculation now centers less on whether the device exists than on what interface and business model it carries. Derek Powazek's wishlist — bigger iPhone, more complicated tasks — captures the consensus shape, while Epicenter's same-day take argues the event is really about reinventing content distribution, and GigaOM runs Alan Kay's view that a tablet done right puts Apple in command of the market.
What is already confirmed on the record: USPTO granted Apple a major tablet-related patent ahead of launch, the San Francisco event drew online interest heavy enough to overwhelm live-blogging services, and Apple announced iBooks, an ePub-based bookstore priced around $12.99–$14.99. Two rumors remain just that — a possible swap of Google for Bing as Safari's default search engine, and developers building apps with no assurance the device will ever ship.
First-order effects
- Developers who spent December preparing apps on Apple's request now face a real platform with real SDK constraints, converting a rumor-cycle bet into a shipping decision.
- Publishers get a new price anchor overnight: iBooks' $12.99–$14.99 ePub titles sit well above the $9.99 e-book norm Amazon has established.
Second-order effects
- Amazon's Kindle store is forced onto defensive ground on both format and price, since Apple's entry gives publishers a credible second buyer and leverage against the $9.99 ceiling.
- Google's default-search position on the iPhone comes under direct pressure if the Bing rumor firms up, making search placement a renegotiable asset rather than a settled default.
Third-order effects
- If Apple extends the iPhone's closed app-store model to a new device category while also retailing content directly, platform owners — not publishers or carriers — become the pricing power in digital media, a structure regulators and antitrust watchers tend to notice once a single storefront controls both the device and the books sold on it.
The trend: Hardware makers are moving downstream into content retail, using device launches to dictate e-commerce terms to publishers and search defaults to partners.