Analyzing Facebook's Forthcoming Redesign
Last week, a source emailed us two screenshots of Facebook's forthcoming redesign. While it's still a work in progress, it shows some simple yet major enhancements that reveal where the world's largest social network with over 350 million subscribers might be headed.
Context & Ripple Effects
Facebook last overhauled its look in September 2006, when its facelift landed on a campus-focused network; three years on, the site GigaOM's source photographed in leaked screenshots serves more than 350 million members who collectively spend 10 billion minutes a day there. The shots are unconfirmed and described as a work in progress, so what they show is direction, not a shipped product.
The stakes are commercial as much as cosmetic: an eMarketer projection reported days before these leaks has Facebook overtaking MySpace in worldwide ad revenues in 2010 ($605 million versus $385 million), and separate unconfirmed chatter about proposed changes to unfriending was already drawing user criticism in late December.
First-order effects
- More than 350 million users would confront a new interface overnight, putting the 10 billion minutes of daily engagement Facebook depends on directly at stake if the 'simple yet major enhancements' disrupt learned habits.
- Facebook's own designers gain a test bed for whether the 2006-era layout still fits a network that has grown from campuses into a population rivaling the third-largest country.
Second-order effects
- Advertisers weighing the projected $605 million 2010 spend get a refreshed canvas whose effectiveness against MySpace's $385 million becomes a live comparison point for where budgets flow.
- Rival social networks face pressure to answer a redesigned leader rather than compete on features alone, since interface familiarity is part of what keeps mainstream users anchored.
Third-order effects
- If the rhythm holds — a facelift in 2006, another major rework now — periodic wholesale redesigns become standing operating procedure for social platforms, each cycle testing how much change a mainstream user base will absorb before revolting.
- A platform at this scale effectively sets interface conventions for the whole category, meaning Facebook's design decisions propagate into user expectations for every competitor's product.
The trend: Social networks are shifting from fixed layouts toward periodically redesigned product surfaces, with each overhaul doubling as a bet that mainstream users will trade habit disruption for a better advertising canvas.