Forrester: Google Android smartphones to take 10% of market in 2010
Forrester outlines 7 enterprise wireless and mobility trends for next year — Android phones will make significant headway in the smartphone market and 4G service providers will zero in on apps in 2010.
Context & Ripple Effects
The question hanging over Android since launch has been whether it matters beyond a curiosity — eWeek posed it directly in October 2008 when it asked whether Android would be the tipping point for smartphones. Fourteen months later, Forrester is answering affirmatively with numbers: its 2010 enterprise wireless outlook gives Android roughly 10% of the smartphone market next year.
The forecast arrives inside a seven-trend package aimed at enterprise buyers, paired with a second claim that 4G service providers will compete on applications rather than raw bandwidth in 2010. That pairing matters: it frames Android not as a consumer novelty but as a platform enterprises should plan budgets around.
First-order effects
- Enterprises building 2010 mobility roadmaps gain a sanctioned third option alongside incumbent platforms, with a major analyst firm putting a concrete share number behind Android's enterprise case.
Second-order effects
- As Android volume grows, application developers face pressure to support it as a first-class target, reinforcing Forrester's parallel prediction that 4G providers will zero in on apps — competition shifting from network speed to which ecosystem attracts the software.
Third-order effects
- If an openly licensed OS can reach double-digit share within roughly two years of launch, handset competition migrates toward software and services layers, weakening the carrier-and-OS lock-in model that defined the pre-Android market.
The trend: Smartphone platforms are consolidating around an open-source OS whose distribution scales through hardware partners rather than carrier control, with analyst firms now treating it as enterprise-grade.