Microsoft Sets Up Zune HD for Failure — Again
Again — The Zune HD's lack of a compelling software market will make it nothing more than a repeat failure, according to mobile developers and an analyst. — Microsoft on Tuesday released its newest media player.
Context & Ripple Effects
Two years after coverage asked why the Zune was still failing (Why Microsoft's Zune is Still Failing) despite a relaunch that same autumn (Singing a New Zune), Microsoft has shipped the Zune HD into a market where the benchmark device is no longer just a music player but the iPod touch running a third-party app store. Mobile developers and an analyst say that gap — no compelling software market on launch day — makes this a repeat failure rather than a reset.
First-order effects
- The Zune HD launches as a hardware refresh competing against Apple's app ecosystem on day one, leaving developers' verdicts — echoed by an analyst — attached to the product from release.
- Microsoft's own developer attention is split: it spent the same week positioning Silverlight as a Flash alternative for web content rather than rallying developers behind a Zune app platform.
Second-order effects
- Developer labor consolidates around platforms with proven distribution, so the absence of a compelling Zune marketplace pushes independent mobile developers further toward Apple's store — and toward whatever Microsoft's next phone OS offers instead.
- Rumored signs that Windows Mobile 7 is in the works (Stephen Chapman's read of tech workers' LinkedIn profiles remains unconfirmed) suggest the Zune hardware line matters mainly as a proving ground for a phone-platform play.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, standalone media players without third-party software markets get commoditized out of relevance, and the durable value migrates to whoever controls the app storefront — the gatekeeper layer above the device.
- For Microsoft specifically, the lesson points toward folding the Zune's media assets into a broader phone/software platform strategy rather than sustaining a device business on hardware alone.
The trend: Consumer electronics is shifting from selling devices to owning the software distribution layer above them, and players without a storefront are becoming accessories to someone else's platform.