Why Android Will Soon Kick Ass
When the T-Mobile G1 was shown off in NYC last week, it didn't have the gusto of a Stevenote. There was no “boom!”—no “one more thing!” And as a result, many (including us) felt a bit underwhelmed, and were quick to interpret the device's inconsistent GUI …
Context & Ripple Effects
After an early hands-on found Android fast but not yet there, the G1's New York debut landed with a whimper — no keynote theatrics, a GUI critics called inconsistent. This piece is the contrarian counterweight: arguing that the software's openness matters more than one rough first phone. The debate it joined ran straight through the months that followed, as coverage asked whether Android would be the tipping point for smartphones and later traced how Google's mobile ambitions grew from these shaky beginnings.
First-order effects
- T-Mobile, HTC, and Google get a second narrative window: if early buyers and reviewers judge Android on the G1's polish alone, the platform risks a weak launch halo; this piece argues they should judge it on its open roadmap instead.
- Apple's polished, closed iPhone model now faces a direct philosophical rival — the immediate contest shifts from hardware specs to which development ecosystem attracts carriers and app makers.
Second-order effects
- Carriers gain leverage against Apple-style exclusives: an open OS lets them customize handsets and control app distribution, pressuring competitors to loosen their closed models or lose carrier deals.
- Handset makers like HTC and Motorola get a viable non-Windows smartphone stack, forcing Microsoft's aging Windows Mobile to defend its license-fee business against free software.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, value migrates from handset hardware to the mobile OS layer, setting up the platform-duopoly structure of the smartphone market — with Google positioned as the neutral supplier every carrier can adopt.
- Openness as competitive strategy becomes the industry template: distribution reach through many manufacturers beats single-device polish, a bet whose payoff took years to become obvious.
The trend: This piece is an early data point in the shift where open-source mobile platforms, distributed across many handset makers, come to dominate global smartphone volume over vertically integrated rivals.