Survey: 91% of Japanese Will Not Buy ‘iPhone’
According to a survey by iSHARE, 91.0% of Japanese mobile phone users are not planning to purchase Apple Inc's “iPhone” mobile phone. — This research was conducted in the wake of the announcement by SoftBank Mobile Corp that it will release the iPhone in Japan (See related article).
Context & Ripple Effects
The survey lands weeks after Apple's carrier talks with DoCoMo and SoftBank culminated in SoftBank Mobile winning the right to launch the iPhone in Japan. The iSHARE numbers are a stark vote of no confidence from the market Apple is about to enter: 91% of Japanese mobile users say they have no plans to buy one. That skepticism echoes earlier doubts raised in Business Week's question of whether Japan even needs the iPhone, and it frames the launch as an uphill battle rather than a guaranteed hit.
First-order effects
- SoftBank faces a cold reception at launch: with 91% of surveyed users ruling out a purchase, its bet on the iPhone as a differentiator against DoCoMo starts from near-zero domestic demand.
- Apple's Japan entry strategy is immediately under pressure — pricing, marketing, and feature localization become urgent levers to convert a hostile installed base.
Second-order effects
- Incumbent carriers like DoCoMo gain breathing room to defend their handset lineups, while Japanese phone makers can argue that local tastes — which later coverage in Wired's 'Why the Japanese Hate the iPhone' would dissect — justify ignoring the iPhone form factor.
- If early sales disappoint, expect discounting or bundling by SoftBank, and a narrative battle over whether the iPhone 'fails' in Japan — a fight already visible when Japanese buyers kept shunning the device into 2009 despite fan backlash.
Third-order effects
- The pattern suggests smartphone adoption follows local usage cultures rather than global hype cycles — though the eventual reversal, with iPhone models reaching 76% of new Japanese smartphone sales by late 2013, shows such resistance can be temporary.
- For global device makers, Japan becomes the canonical case study that carrier relationships and cultural fit matter more than brand halo — shaping how Apple and rivals sequence future market entries.
The trend: This survey is an early data point in the arc of global smartphone diffusion, where initial local resistance to the iPhone repeatedly gave way to platform-driven dominance once ecosystems matured.