NTV Predictions: Video Advertising
Among the questions we've asked our panel of experts was this one: Which online video ad format will become dominant in 2008? — Selections from their responses are below. We'd love to hear your take on the question or on our panelists' predictions in the comments.
Context & Ripple Effects
Online video advertising spent 2007 without a standard unit: TechCrunch's July survey found every startup pitching a different ad solution, and by November AOL was pushing its own video ticker ads into the mix. With publishers and advertisers unable to pick a winner, NewTeeVee closed the year by putting the question to a panel of experts — which format dominates in 2008 — making prediction itself part of the coverage.
First-order effects
- Advertisers and publishers planning 2008 budgets face a fragmented menu of formats — pre-roll, overlays, tickers — where picking wrong means paying to re-cut creative for whatever emerges.
- AOL's ticker rollout puts it in direct competition with the startup ad networks profiled earlier in the year, each betting its proprietary format becomes the default.
Second-order effects
- Pressure builds toward consolidation among video ad startups: publishers will not integrate five players, so the format that lands anchor deals forces rivals to conform or exit.
- Media buyers gain leverage — with no dominant format, they can demand better rates and measurement guarantees before committing spend to any single player.
Third-order effects
- If a single format does emerge dominant in 2008, online video advertising starts mimicking television's standardized spot model, shifting power from ad-tech intermediaries to whoever controls the biggest video inventory.
- If fragmentation persists instead, the industry drifts toward direct-response and performance pricing, since brand advertisers avoid unstandardized placements.
The trend: Online video advertising is moving through the same standardization cycle display went through, with 2008 positioned as the year the market either consolidates around one format or fragments into performance-based pricing.