Canalys, Symbian: Apple iPhone Already Leads Windows Mobile in US Market Share, Q3 2007
Daniel Eran Dilger — In its first full quarter of sales, the iPhone has already climbed past Microsoft's entire lineup of Windows Mobile smartphones in North America, according to figures compiled by Canalys and published by Symbian.
Context & Ripple Effects
The Q3 2007 Canalys numbers, published by Symbian, put Apple's single device ahead of Microsoft's entire North American Windows Mobile lineup in the iPhone's first full quarter of sales. The messenger matters here: Symbian has its own stake in the OS wars, so publicizing a figure that embarrasses Microsoft doubles as competitive positioning.
The timing lands just after Microsoft's own December 14 briefing on upcoming Windows Mobile 7 and 8 platforms, which the company positioned as fixes for a current platform widely described as undeniably broken. A first-quarter entrant overtaking the incumbent's whole portfolio sharpens the case that the repair cycle cannot come soon enough.
First-order effects
- Microsoft's US smartphone position is now defined by a deficit to a product with one quarter of sales behind it, putting immediate pressure on its carrier and OEM partners who currently ship Windows Mobile devices.
- Apple converts launch momentum into a share benchmark it can cite against every rival OS vendor, including Symbian, whose own handsets remain the larger global base.
Second-order effects
- Microsoft's WM7 and WM8 roadmap becomes a holding action: partners deciding between shipping current Windows Mobile hardware or waiting for the promised fixes now have a share chart arguing for the wait.
- Carriers gain leverage in negotiations, since a hot exclusive device like the iPhone shifts bargaining power away from OS vendors toward whoever controls distribution.
Third-order effects
- If single-device entrants can outrun incumbent platforms this fast, smartphone competition reorganizes around software experience and update cadence rather than handset counts — a structure in which Microsoft's multi-year fix cycle is a structural handicap, not a temporary one.
- OS vendors increasingly fight through third-party market-share data, as Symbian's publication of Canalys figures shows, making measurement itself part of the competitive battlefield.
The trend: Smartphone platform leadership is decoupling from installed-base history, letting a first-full-quarter entrant leapfrog an incumbent's entire lineup and forcing incumbents onto multi-year rebuild cycles.