Second-gen iPhone in final phase; Apple TV update planned - report
After meeting with key component suppliers and manufacturers in Asia, researchers for investment bank Goldman Sachs said this week they believe Apple will introduce two revisions to the iPhone in 2008 — one minor …
Context & Ripple Effects
The second-generation iPhone has been rumor territory since at least July, when DigiTimes reported second-gen iPhone chatter out of the supply chain. What is new this week is the source class: Goldman Sachs researchers, back from meetings with key Asian component suppliers and manufacturers, put the device in its 'final phase' and expect two revisions during 2008 — one minor — plus an Apple TV update.
The claim is unconfirmed by Apple, but it traveled fast: CNET's Crave gadget blog and Engadget both picked up the Goldman note on or about December 12, and Engadget paired it with its own report of TomTom developing an iPhone GPS module. It lands amid a dense pre-Macworld rumor field, including an unconfirmed ultra-portable notebook said to be planned for Macworld San Francisco 2008 and a floated — and equally unconfirmed — $15 billion acquisition war chest with Adobe, TiVo, and Nintendo named as possible targets.
First-order effects
- Asian component suppliers and contract manufacturers briefed by Goldman's team are positioned for a 2008 iPhone refresh cycle, meaning production planning and parts orders are already being shaped around two revisions rather than one.
- Buyers weighing the current iPhone — which topped 2007 gadget lists for its glass-and-stainless-steel design — now face a known obsolescence window, since Goldman expects one of the 2008 revisions to be minor and the other more substantial.
Second-order effects
- Accessory makers are hedging against the hardware roadmap: TomTom's reported iPhone GPS module only makes sense if the next iPhone does not ship with built-in navigation, so a confirmed GPS-equipped revision would strand that product category before it launches.
- Apple TV's rumored update ties the set-top box's cadence to iTunes content expansion — TV shows newly went on sale in Canada this week, including NHL programming — pushing the box toward broader international content availability.
Third-order effects
- Sell-side research on Apple is consolidating around supply-chain verification — analyst teams flying to Asia to check component orders — as the primary read on product timing, since Apple itself gives no forward guidance.
- If the two-revisions-per-year pattern holds through 2008, the iPhone moves onto an annualized refresh rhythm, forcing carriers, accessory vendors, and rivals to plan around a predictable upgrade clock rather than episodic launches.
The trend: Wall Street is learning to read Apple's secret roadmap through Asian component-supplier checks, turning supply-chain intelligence into the market's de facto guidance on iPhone timing.