Facebook Traffic Tanks - This can't be real?
comScore is about to issue September 2007 user engagement and page views data, and it seems like the SVFurby, I mean Facebook unique visitors took a little dip. See the little decline on the red line. I can't exactly tell how many and how accurate the data is, but it looks like a dip.
Context & Ripple Effects
The July 2007 comScore release showing a flood of new Facebook traffic was the data point that supercharged the platform-hype cycle, and it drew immediate pushback from analysts who called the comScore numbers fishy within a day. That dispute never got resolved — it just set up today's reversal.
Now comScore's September 2007 engagement data reportedly shows unique visitors dipping, and the same measurement tool credited with the summer surge is being asked to explain the fall. The timing matters: Silicon Alley Insider framed this as Facebook's '$15B moment,' while Jason Calacanis argued the site isn't worth the $100B figure conference-panel fans have floated — an unconfirmed claim, but one that makes any traffic wobble a valuation story, not just a stats story.
First-order effects
- Facebook's growth narrative takes a direct hit: if September uniques fell, the momentum case underpinning the $15B valuation talk rests on a curve that just bent the wrong way.
- Application developers betting on the platform — some already forced to resubmit everything after the fbFund mulligan earlier this month — now face questions about whether the audience they built against is still expanding.
Second-order effects
- Advertisers and partners who buy reach off comScore panels get a reason to discount Facebook inventory until October data confirms or refutes the dip, shifting leverage toward whoever controls credible measurement.
- Rivals MySpace and Google gain a talking point: the confirmed analyst line that Facebook won't crush either of them gets its first supporting datapoint, letting incumbents argue plateau rather than inevitability.
Third-order effects
- Private-company valuations are being set by third-party panel estimates that swing enough to produce both a 'flood' and a 'tank' headline in one quarter — a structural fragility in how the social-web boom is priced.
- If dips like this recur around product changes, the industry will need engagement metrics that survive scrutiny, because page-view counts alone are proving too noisy to carry billion-dollar claims.
The trend: Social-network valuations are becoming hostage to third-party traffic measurement, with each comScore release capable of swinging the hype cycle more than any product decision.