LinkedIn Traffic Up, But Is It Enough?
The latest figures released by Hitwise indicate that traffic to LinkedIn is up 323% in the last year and 17% in the last week alone. It's a healthy rise, and something LinkedIn should be pleased with, however the real question becomes …
Context & Ripple Effects
The traffic numbers land at a charged moment for LinkedIn: in late June the company was reported to be gearing up for one of the first big post-dotcom Internet IPOs, hiring ex-TiVo CFO talent from top Silicon Valley firms while revenues grow explosively. Hitwise's figures — a 323% jump in US market share of visits over the past year and another 17% last week — give the pre-IPO story its growth proof point.
The catch, flagged by alarm:clock's coverage of the same Hitwise data, is composition rather than velocity: usage remains concentrated among early tech adopters, and LinkedIn visitors skew heavily toward Gmail users — a professional-early-adopter profile that raises the question of whether this is a mass-market network or a niche tool with a great growth rate off a small base.
First-order effects
- LinkedIn enters its IPO runway holding audited third-party growth data: a 323% year-over-year rise in US visit share gives underwriters and investors a measurable traction claim just weeks after reports of its public-offering plans.
- The same data hands skeptics their counter-narrative — alarm:clock calls it an early-adopter toy — so LinkedIn must show the growth curve extends beyond tech professionals before it can price itself as a mainstream franchise.
Second-order effects
- Rivals and would-be rivals in professional networking now have a benchmark: if Hitwise keeps publishing market-share-of-visits rankings, competitors' growth gets judged against LinkedIn's 323% figure, forcing them to either match the pace or differentiate on audience quality.
- Advertisers and recruiters reading the Gmail-overlap signal see a high-value but narrow demographic — premium pricing against a small professional base becomes LinkedIn's near-term monetization lever while breadth catches up.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — steep percentage growth on an early-adopter base — professional social networking splits into a two-tier structure: broad consumer networks chasing volume versus focused networks monetizing commercial intent per user, with valuation hinging on which tier investors believe scales.
- Third-party measurement firms like Hitwise gain gatekeeper power in this cycle: their traffic-share numbers are becoming the currency that pre-IPO web companies are judged by, ahead of any disclosed financials.
The trend: Pre-IPO web companies in 2007 are being priced on third-party traffic-measurement curves, and professional networks like LinkedIn are racing to convert early-adopter momentum into mainstream reach before the offering window closes.