Survey: Windows loses ground with developers
(InfoWorld) - Microsoft's Windows platform is losing traction as a target for application developers in North America but still is the dominant platform, according to Evans Data survey results being released on Tuesday.
Context & Ripple Effects
The survey lands six months into Vista's shelf life: Microsoft launched Windows Vista in January 2007, and Evans Data's North American numbers now show developers drifting away from Windows as a target even while it remains the dominant platform. For a company whose franchise depends on third-party software, the gap between installed base and developer intent is the number that matters.
Microsoft has been hedging beyond the desktop: through late June 2007 it shipped Windows Live betas including Live Drive and Photo Gallery, with a broader Live suite planned to span mobile, desktop, and web. The Evans Data findings put pressure on exactly that strategy — the OS alone may not hold the developer relationship.
First-order effects
- Microsoft's Vista-era developer pitch now carries a measurable headwind in its home market: Evans Data's North American respondents are pulling back from Windows as a development target even as the platform stays dominant.
- Independent software vendors get a third-party data point justifying multi-platform roadmaps over Windows-only commitments.
Second-order effects
- Microsoft's own Windows Live expansion — the Live Drive and Photo Gallery betas of June 2007 and the planned cross-device suite — functions as the hedge, moving the developer relationship off the OS and onto web and mobile surfaces it controls.
Third-order effects
- If developer mindshare keeps leading installed-base share, platform power becomes something firms like Evans Data track as a leading indicator, and arguments about Microsoft's position shift from distribution muscle to whether its services stack retains developers.
The trend: Platform competition is increasingly decided by developer mindshare ahead of market share, with survey houses like Evans Data turning developer sentiment into the scoreboard for operating-system power.