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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Toshiba kicks out its own 4GB microSDHC card

Oh, Toshiba.  Usually we wouldn't react too kindly to jumping in the game nearly half a year late, but considering just how rare these 4GB microSDHC cards still seem to be, we'll give you a pass on this one.  Sure enough, Tosh is finally ready …

Engadget Darren Murph

Context & Ripple Effects

Toshiba is entering the 4GB microSDHC tier roughly six months after rival card makers got there, and Engadget's read is that the lateness matters less than the persistent shortage: these cards have been hard to actually buy since they debuted. The launch lands while Toshiba is fighting on multiple storage fronts, including the HD DVD-versus-Blu-ray war analysts expect to drag on.

First-order effects

  • Buyers of high-capacity removable storage gain a second-tier supplier in a segment where demand has outrun availability since rivals shipped their 4GB microSDHC cards months earlier.

Second-order effects

  • The incumbent card makers that had the 4GB microSDHC tier to themselves now compete with a vertically integrated flash manufacturer that supplies its own NAND, putting pressure on margins at the top of the capacity ladder.

Third-order effects

  • If every new capacity tier keeps selling out before the laggards arrive, card launches become a race among NAND producers rather than a branding game, and supply constraints — not marketing — decide who captures the early premium.

The trend: Removable flash storage is climbing the density curve faster than supply can keep up, turning each new capacity tier into a contest among vertically integrated NAND makers.