How Big Will the iPhone Be?
The new must-have smartphone may be a $10 billion business—and could send Apple shares even higher — Few stocks trade on emotion the way Apple Inc. does. Its rip-roaring initial public offering in 1980 created the template for modern tech mania, while making Steve Jobs a gazillionaire.
Context & Ripple Effects
Days before the iPhone reaches store shelves, Business Week steps back from the gadget itself to ask a sizing question: analysts project the device could become a $10 billion business for Apple, with the stock potentially moving higher on top of an already strong run. The piece frames this through Apple's long history as the market's emotional stock — dating back to its rip-roaring 1980 IPO, which created the template for modern tech mania and made Steve Jobs wealthy enough to become shorthand for it.
What makes the story matter is the gap between what has shipped (nothing yet) and what is being priced in (a top-tier phone business). The $10 billion figure is an analyst projection, not company guidance, so the article is really documenting how much expectation is accumulating around an unproven product line.
First-order effects
- Wall Street now has an explicit number to anchor on — a projected $10 billion iPhone business — turning Apple's June launch into a testable forecast rather than open-ended hype.
Second-order effects
- With expectations running ahead of any sales data, Apple's share price becomes hostage to early sell-through figures; a soft start would hit the stock even if the product succeeds on its own terms.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, major Apple product launches function as recurring market events where sentiment and analyst sizing move the stock faster than quarterly results do — a dynamic the company's 1980 IPO helped establish.
The trend: Flagship consumer-electronics launches are becoming financial-market events, with Apple's valuation increasingly driven by pre-launch projections rather than shipped units.