Technorati's Opportunities and Exit Options
Written by Emre Sokullu and edited by Richard MacManus — About 2 months ago, HitWise published a report stating that Technorati, the leading blog search company, had for the first time fallen behind Google BlogSearch in traffic.
Context & Ripple Effects
Technorati built its position as the leading blog search company from its November 2002 launch, layering on RSS-based topic tracking, live charts of blog conversation, and State of the Blogosphere growth reports through 2006 — it even became the de facto replacement for the abandoned Trackback standard via per-post Technorati links.
That lead is now measurably gone: HitWise's confirmed report shows Google BlogSearch overtaking Technorati in traffic for the first time, and Emre Sokullu's Read/WriteWeb analysis frames the moment around what opportunities remain and which exits are realistic.
First-order effects
- Google now captures blog search traffic by default through its existing search entry point, while Technorati must spend against a rival whose distribution channel is free.
- Publishers and bloggers who used Technorati links and authority tracking as their conversation-metric face a credible alternative in Google BlogSearch, splitting the ecosystem's attention.
Second-order effects
- Falling relative traffic directly compresses Technorati's negotiating position in any sale, making an exit more likely at a lower valuation or pushing it toward a narrower specialist role.
- Competing blog-analytics and ranking services gain an opening to court the audience and advertiser relationships Technorati's declining reach no longer secures.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, independent vertical search properties become acquisition targets precisely when a general-purpose engine bundles their category — the specialist's technology matters more than its standalone brand.
- Blogosphere measurement itself risks consolidating under whoever controls the largest search index rather than whoever invented the tools, shifting influence over how the blogosphere is ranked and described.
The trend: Independent vertical search leaders lose ground once general-purpose engines bundle their category, turning category creators into exit candidates.