FDM CCS Insight: ~134M travel eSIMs will be used in 2026, up from 101.8M in 2025, challenging mobile carriers, which make 3% to 5% of their revenue from roaming
Context & Ripple Effects
Travel eSIM growth builds on the handset shift that made changing providers easier: US carriers framed eSIM-only iPhones as a way to switch carriers more easily. FDM CCS Insight now puts that flexibility into the travel market, where it directly targets a revenue stream established carriers still draw from roaming.
First-order effects
- FDM CCS Insight forecasts about 134 million travel eSIMs in use in 2026, versus 101.8 million in 2025, giving travelers a growing alternative to their home carrier's roaming offer.
- Established mobile carriers face immediate pressure on the 3% to 5% of revenue they derive from roaming as more travelers can provision travel connectivity separately.
Second-order effects
- Carrier roaming packages must compete more directly on price and convenience with travel eSIM options, rather than relying on the friction of switching connectivity abroad.
- The earlier move toward eSIM-only iPhone connectivity becomes more commercially consequential for carriers because the same provisioning model lowers the barrier to buying travel service.
Third-order effects
- If travel eSIM adoption maintains this pace, roaming shifts from a carrier-controlled add-on toward a more contestable connectivity purchase, weakening the pricing protection embedded in legacy roaming arrangements.
The trend: Travel connectivity is moving from home-carrier roaming bundles toward device-enabled, separately purchased eSIM service.