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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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In Q2, “other income”, mostly from investment gains, at Amazon and Alphabet totaled ~$121B after taxes and made up 66% and 71%, respectively, of profits

Gains on investments in companies like Anthropic are boosting earnings at some of the biggest technology companies

Wall Street Journal Jonathan Weil

Context & Ripple Effects

Amazon and Alphabet had already reported that roughly 60% of Q1 income came from “other income,” with most of that tied to private-company equity stakes. Q2 extends that pattern: investment gains now account for roughly two-thirds or more of each company’s profits, rather than serving as a marginal earnings item.

The exposure is not isolated to one company: Amazon previously recorded a $9.5B pre-tax gain on its Anthropic investment, while Alphabet disclosed large equity-security gains linked in part to a private company. The earnings impact makes the financial return on AI investments more visible alongside the companies’ operating results.

First-order effects

  • Amazon’s and Alphabet’s Q2 profit figures are immediately more dependent on investment gains, which account for 66% and 71% of profits, respectively.
  • Equity stakes in companies such as Anthropic become material contributors to the reported earnings of Amazon and Alphabet, not just strategic holdings.

Second-order effects

  • Investors evaluating Amazon and Alphabet must separate operating performance from mark-to-market investment gains, after the Q1 surge in other income was followed by an even larger Q2 contribution.
  • The concentration of gains in private-company stakes raises the financial importance of the companies’ AI-investment portfolios alongside their core businesses.

Third-order effects

  • If this pattern persists, large technology companies’ AI partnerships will increasingly function as both infrastructure strategy and a recurring source of earnings volatility tied to portfolio valuations.
  • The result is a more concentrated AI financing model, in which the biggest platform companies can capture investment returns from the same frontier-model companies they support commercially.

The trend: AI infrastructure investment is becoming financialized as major platforms translate stakes in frontier-model companies into a substantial share of reported profit.

Discussion

  • Jonathan Weil Jonathan Weil on linkedin
    The Wall Street earnings game has spiraled out of control, and the problem isn't just financial cosmetics.  It's utter inconsistency. …