Letter: Situational Awareness is down ~67% in July, but remains up ~80% in 2026; sources say it planned to sell $3.5B of its Anthropic stake but backed out

Wall Street Journal 2026-07-31

Context & Ripple Effects

Situational Awareness’ July reversal follows reports that it sold all of its public-stock holdings and that asset sales were used to meet margin calls. The fund’s remaining profile is therefore more dependent on private holdings than it was at the start of the month.

The decision not to sell is consequential because related coverage identifies Anthropic as a $5B position for the fund. It preserves that exposure while the fund says it will continue operating as a private investment firm.

First-order effects

Situational Awareness avoids an immediate $3.5B disposal of its Anthropic stake, retaining a large private-asset position despite a roughly 67% July decline.
The fund’s investors remain exposed to the value and liquidity of Anthropic rather than receiving proceeds from the proposed sale.

Second-order effects

With its public portfolio reportedly sold, the abandoned transaction leaves the fund more concentrated in a private AI holding; future liquidity management may be harder to separate from the valuation of that stake.
Averted selling pressure removes one potential near-term source of Anthropic secondary-market supply, while prospective buyers lose a large possible block.

Third-order effects

The episode illustrates how leveraged or rapidly shrinking investment vehicles can turn private AI stakes into liquidity-management assets, not simply long-term venture bets.
If similar funds rely on concentrated private positions after liquidating public assets, secondary-market depth and ownership concentration at frontier labs will matter more during market stress.

The trend: Frontier-lab capital concentration is making private AI stakes increasingly important both as strategic investments and as a source of liquidity when public-market portfolios unwind.

Discussion

@berber_jin1 Berber Jin on x
late-night scoop from @WSJ: Situational Awareness tried to sell a $3.5 billion stake in Anthropic to a group of investors led by Greenoaks and Sequoia the parties reached a deal late wed before situational awareness pulled out thurs morning w/ @rudegeair [image]
@vikramskr Vikram Sekar on x
Anyone who bought SMH would be up 45% YTD.
@jukan05 Jukan on x
Interesting. Situational Awareness says that even after including its July losses, the fund is still up about 80% year to date. The letter also reportedly blamed short sellers who were targeting the firm. [image]
@amitisinvesting Amit on x
OH. MY. GOODNESS. CITADEL HAS BOUGHT A MAJORITY OF THE PUBLIC ASSETS FROM LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND. …
@smb_attorney @smb_attorney on x
Guys, there were warning signs [video]
@sharongoldman Sharon Goldman on x
One interesting ripple from today's news that Citadel bought Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational …
@ashleymayer Ashley Mayer on x
This feels like Binance and FTX (minus the fraud)
@stocksavvyshay Shay Boloor on x
THIS HAS TO BE THE STORY OF 2026 Ken Griffin's Citadel was pushing surprise-rate-hike fears …
@gurgavin @gurgavin on x
LEOPOLD'S SITUATIONAL AWARENESS FUND BLOWUP TIMELINE JULY 1: LEOPOLD'S HEDGE FUND SITUATIONAL …
@danprimack Dan Primack on x
WSJ story says Citadel bought most of SA's stock portfolio, but I'm hearing they bought all of it.
@devahaz Deva Hazarika on x
5 years since ConstitutionDAO [image]
@pitdesi Sheel Mohnot on x
Situational Awareness sold their public book to Citadel and now appears to be mostly in Anthropic. Some similarities to what happened to Peter Thiel after the GFC, Clarium had massive losses and redemptions and put the whole fund in Palantir [image]
@fintechfrank Frank Chaparro on x
Wow. AI-focused hedge fund Situational Awareness has reportedly sold the bulk of its public equity portfolio to Citadel after suffering steep losses. The firm is also said to be seeking fresh capital while retaining its private investments, including Anthropic. [image]
@packym Packy McCormick on x
It is remarkable that Leopold was at FTX Future Fund. One organization linked to arguably the most important crypto blowup and the most important AI blowup.
@luke_metro @luke_metro on x
I love how Ken Griffin swoops in every 5 years to clean out all the tech guys
@mitchmartan98 Mitchell Martan on x
Unreal call @TheLongInvest Citadel knew Situational Awareness was in trouble. …
@highyieldharry @highyieldharry on x
Ken Griffin to Leopold [image]
@jackzampolin Jack Zampolin on x
lol, lmfao even. citadel talked up rate raise and tanked market then bought out leo. classic shark play
@thelonginvest @thelonginvest on x
THIS WAS INFACT THE BIGGEST HEIST IN HISTORY BY CITADEL
@geiger_capital @geiger_capital on x
Absolutely diabolical... Citadel called for a rate hike to accelerate the selloff and buy Leopold's stocks even cheaper. [image]
@kawzinvests @kawzinvests on x
Citadel Securities publicly called for a surprise hike two days before the FOMC. The Fed held. These guys liquidated leopold and scooped up his port at the bottom. 😂
@packym Packy McCormick on x
Ladies and gentlemen, Ken Fucking Griffin. Of course.
@drorpoleg Dror Poleg on x
Elon's razor strikes again: The most entertaining outcome is the most likely. [image]
@thelonginvest @thelonginvest on x
NO FCKING WAY THEY MASTERMINDED THIS WHOLE THING I KNEW I SMELT A RAT THE MOMENT THEY RELEASED THAT FAKE INTEREST RATE PREDICTION CITADEL BUYS LARGE PORTION OF SITUATIONAL AWARENESS EQUITY HOLDINGS [image]
@gzuckerman Gregory Zuckerman on x
Scoop: Citadel buys much of Situational Awareness's stock portfolio amid crisis at the once highflying hedge fund. w/ @rudegeair https://www.wsj.com/...
@zephyr_z9 @zephyr_z9 on x
I think Situational Awareness will transition from a hedge fund to a VC firm
@anissagardizy8 Anissa Gardizy on x
Breaking from @GZuckerman and @rudegeair: Situational Awareness, the highflying AI focused hedge-fund, sold the bulk of its stock portfolio to Ken Griffin's investment firm Citadel after suffering deep losses @WSJ https://www.wsj.com/...
@mattzeitlin Matthew Zeitlin on x
lmaooooooooooooo
@paradislabs @paradislabs on x
*CITADEL BUYS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS PORTFOLIO (WSJ) Citadel previously said that the Fed would hike rates, driving AI stock prices lower. When they knew that the Fed would not hike rates! This is a movie. [image]
@sell9000 @sell9000 on x
i really wanted to give Ken Griffin the benefit of the doubt but at this point, just gulag the same guy who stopped GME trading on RH, who stole constitutionDAO away from crypto bros, and now this https://www.wsj.com/...
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
Wow https://www.wsj.com/... [image]
@andreassteno Andreas Steno Larsen on x
So Citadel pushed a rate hike to liquidate Leopold, just for them to buy his bag at a discount? Did I get that right?
@investorslive Nathan Michaud on x
The same firm that had an analyst say a surprise rate hike was coming ... CITADEL ACQUIRES MOST OF SITUATIONAL AWARENESS ASSETS, REPORTS WSJ. Ya think they had a short to cover?
@eliant_capital @eliant_capital on x
Kenny G always wins [image]
@notthreadguy @notthreadguy on x
there it is [image]
@notthreadguy @notthreadguy on x
wait wait wait... two days ago ken griffin/citadel randomly came out and declared the fed will raise rates, causing semis/ai the get absolutely destroyed into extreme pressure on leopold and SA causing them to liquidate their ENTIRE public equities book through a transaction with…
Rahul Dcunha Rahul Dcunha on linkedin
Markets don't repeat themselves but they certainly do rhyme. Today's WSJ headline of Situational Awareness being a forced seller to Citadel offers …
@carlquintanilla Carl Quintanilla on bluesky
“.. It had borrowed billions of dollars from Wall Street banks to amplify its bets, and those banks had in recent days begun asking for some of that money back, according to the three people briefed on the requests.” — @nytimes.com — www.nytimes.com/2026/07/30/b... [image]
@peark.es George Pearkes on bluesky
Congrats to Citadel for picking off the entire Situational Awareness Portfolio.
r/Superstonk r on reddit
Citadel purchases a portion of AI portfolio
r/wallstreetbets r on reddit
Citadel Buys Situational Awareness's Stock Portfolio After Big Losses in AI
r/NBIS_Stock r on reddit
Citadel Buys Situational Awareness's Stock Portfolio After
@marypcbuk Mary Branscombe on bluesky
I know nothing about them but I feel like they may not have earned that name [embedded post]
@thezvi Zvi Mowshowitz on x
When you use this kind of leverage you didn't come here to not scramble for margin calls at least once. Full ‘we know what we signed up for’ protocols in place.
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
In a sense, this is the second big blowup for Leopold in a few years, the first having been his involvement with FTX (though that was on the firm's philanthropic side)
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
Truly an incredible turn of events for Situational Awareness and @leopoldasch. https://www.cnbc.com/... [image]
@mattzeitlin Matthew Zeitlin on x
so Situation Awareness is basically an Anthropic SPV now? [image]
@amitisinvesting Amit on x
oh my goodness CNBC reporting Situational Awareness sold their ENTIRE PUBLIC book including 50% of their Anthropic bro...this guy was the poster child of the ai infra trade he was 4 times levered...this is absolutely crazy did he sell the bottom? did we need this to happen to put…
@thinkingusd Flood on x
Wanna bet Jane street hit this? Yoink [image]
@andreassteno Andreas Steno Larsen on x
So it was Leopold who created the July rout? [image]
@jukan05 Jukan on x
Is this why everything is surging right now?
@zephyr_z9 @zephyr_z9 on x
So he won't close the fund Situational Awareness LP lives on
@martinshkreli Martin Shkreli on x
**SITUATION HAS SOLD HALF OF ANTHROPIC STAKE—SOURCES Godel Terminal dot com
Tim Culpan Tim Culpan on linkedin
The meltdown at Leopold Aschenbrenner 's Situational Awareness hedge fund shows the difference between *intelligence* and *wisdom*. — I've never met Leo. …
@masnick.com Mike Masnick on bluesky
I get that “hedge funds” stopped hedging ages ago, but... this one is just kinda funny. [embedded post]
@carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on bluesky
24-year-old ex-OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner built a $20B AI hedge fund called Situational Awareness. — He bet heavily on AI related stocks until this week's selloff led to a margin call and he had to liquidate his public portfolio. — Actually sounds like a lack of …
@lopatto Elizabeth Lopatto on bluesky
if CNBC is right it sure sounds like they lost $45 billion IN A MONTH ahhhhhhhhhhh www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/l...
@peark.es George Pearkes on bluesky
CNBC's David Faber reported earlier that the firm was trying to sell assets to outside firms. Just now on TV he cited sources saying the whole public markets book was sold to a third party in a single transaction. Incredible scenes.
r/KEEL_ r on reddit
EASY COME EASY GO!
r/SKHynix r on reddit
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say
r/MU_Stock r on reddit
Leopold Aschenbrenner margin called!!!
r/wallstreetbets r on reddit
AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner forced to unwind all public stock positions after steep losses, sources say
r/NBIS_Stock r on reddit
Leopold Aschenbrenner's hedge fund has sold all of its public stock holdings, accord
r/stocks r on reddit
Star AI investor Leopold Aschenbrenner is unwinding trades after steep losses, sources say
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
If you're aware of the prospect that Leopold will one day return with even more power, then not only are you making a mistake to laugh at his misfortune, you should be doing everything you are capable of to accelerate his rehabilitation.
@pitdesi Sheel Mohnot on x
I see people asking why you have to liquidate when you're up 80%? And how do you fall 67% …
@swyx @swyx on x
TIL even after puking 67% this month leopold was up 80% YTD, he locked in gainz, this isn't a sad story, he is still one of the greatest hedge funders of all time and will get unlimited money once he opens up again [image]
@tbpn @tbpn on x
Here is the full letter Leopold sent to his LPs last night. Rumors of his demise are greatly exaggerated. [image]
@_sholtodouglas Sholto Douglas on x
Prediction: SALP will be bigger than Citadel by the end of the decade. Leopold has predicted the last two years better than anyone else - now that he can combine that with very expensive lessons in risk he will be unstoppable. He has my full confidence.
@chamath Chamath Palihapitiya on x
I heard second hand (so ymmv) that SALP's Anthropic position was marketed but went unsold. Is this true? Why, if accurate, is no one reporting why nobody bought the private Anthropic portion SALP tried to sell? What does smart, public money think of valuation? Is the below commen…
@dylan522p Dylan Patel on x
Love that all FinTwit people making fun of Leopold still get mogged by his returns this year. Leopold is a great guy and he's extremely in tune with where the world is headed.
@convequity @convequity on x
Situational Awareness LP What actually happened (timeline & numbers from public info): …
@alexbronzini Alex Bronzini-Vender on x
Leopold Aschenbrenner's wedding included a “colloquium to discuss ideas in panels and breakout sessions.” I'm sorry, what? https://www.wsj.com/...
@thestalwart Joe Weisenthal on x
Best detail here is that there will be breakout sessions and panels at his wedding.
@jessefelder.com Jesse Felder on bluesky
‘For every $1 of capital, Situational would upsize its positions by borrowing an additional $3 to $4, or sometimes more, well above the leverage used by funds trading such volatile kinds of shares. It also used options to amplify its returns.’ www.wsj.com/finance/leop...
r/business r on reddit
How Leopold Aschenbrenner, the ‘golden child’ of the AI trade, was laid low
@julianklymochko Julian Klymochko on x
My variant view on Leopold Aschenbrenner / Situational Awareness: He was able to raise hundreds …
@deanwball Dean W. Ball on x
I sat out the Leopold commentary cycle but Leopold is obviously right about the future and has been rewarded handsomely for it. His fund lives on, and I hope he continues to be enormously successful. (I am not and have never been a client of SALP)
@scottew Scott Wessman on x
If the below numbers are accurate, that would mean that Situational Awareness was up ~540% YTD before July's downturn. Sheesh. Example math: - $9.4B AUM at beginning of 2026 - Up 5.4x = $50.76B at start of July - 67% drawdown = back to $16.92B - Result: still up 80%
@alexia Alexia Bonatsos on x
I would kill for this guy's losses https://x.com/...

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