Global smartphone shipments fell 11% YoY in Q2 to the lowest Q2 levels since 2013 amid the DRAM and NAND shortage; Samsung returns to #1 with a 24% market share
Shilpi Jain /Counterpoint Research:
Context & Ripple Effects
The Q2 decline extends a deterioration already visible in Q1, when memory constraints coincided with the first global shipment drop since mid-2023. The present reading is sharper: shipments are now at their weakest Q2 level since 2013.
Samsung was one of only two major vendors reported to have grown shipments in Q1. Its return to the top global position in Q2 suggests constrained supply is reshaping vendor rankings as well as total market volume.
First-order effects
- A DRAM and NAND shortfall directly limits handset production and contributes to lower global shipments, putting immediate pressure on vendors that cannot secure sufficient memory components.
- Samsung takes the leading global shipment position with a 24% share, while the overall market contracts.
Second-order effects
- Memory availability becomes a more important competitive variable: vendors with stronger component access or supply-chain control can preserve shipments and gain share while rivals face production constraints.
- Lower unit volumes can shift vendor attention toward higher-value devices and product differentiation; Samsung’s continued foldable-display development illustrates an effort to compete beyond commodity handset volume.
Third-order effects
- If memory constraints persist, smartphone competition may become more vertically integrated, with large vendors placing greater strategic value on component capacity and supply-chain resilience.
- The repeated shipment downturns in the coverage point to a market where share gains can increasingly come from relative supply execution rather than broad demand expansion.
The trend: The smartphone market is moving toward a supply-constrained, scale-driven competitive cycle in which component access and differentiated premium products matter more for share than industry-wide volume growth.