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TEXXR

Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: Founders Fund's ~3% stake in SpaceX is now worth $50B+, after investing $600M; a16z will get the biggest return in its history, with a $10B+ stake

A small number of firms are set to net tens of billions of dollars in returns from SpaceX's initial public offering …

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

SpaceX’s financing arc moved from a 2023 round at a $137B valuation, through a planned 2025 secondary sale at an $800B valuation, to a $75B IPO that valued it at $1.77T. The IPO later expanded to $85.7B after the overallotment was exercised.

Against that rise, early backers’ positions have become unusually consequential: Founders Fund’s roughly 3% holding is valued above $50B, while a16z’s stake is valued above $10B. The reported returns also arrive as the newly public shares have traded close to their $135 IPO price.

First-order effects

  • Founders Fund and a16z gain the prospect of exceptionally large realizable gains from stakes built before SpaceX’s public listing, with a16z’s result described as its largest-ever return.
  • SpaceX’s IPO converts a long-private valuation story into a public-market reference price, making the value of these investors’ holdings more visible and more sensitive to day-to-day trading.

Second-order effects

  • The scale of the gains can strengthen the two firms’ capacity to support future investments, while also raising the strategic importance of decisions about any share sales and distributions.
  • SpaceX’s post-listing trading becomes a test of how much of the private-market valuation step-up public investors will sustain; early weakness around the offer price can constrain the immediate flexibility of holders seeking liquidity.

Third-order effects

  • If other highly valued private companies follow this path, a small group of venture firms with concentrated, long-held positions could become increasingly shaped by a few mega-exits rather than broad portfolio outcomes.
  • The sequence from private rounds and secondary pricing to a record-sized IPO points to a more direct handoff of financing risk from private investors to public markets, though SpaceX’s scale may remain an exception rather than a template.

The trend: SpaceX is a prominent example of late-stage private-company value being crystallized through mega-IPOs, concentrating venture returns in a handful of pre-listing stakes.

Discussion

  • @danprimack Dan Primack on x
    Gonna read a lot about VC “returns” from the SpaceX IPO. Reminder that no VC is selling shares into the IPO, and can't sell for a while. So these are still paper gains, not actual cash for distribution-starved LPs in their funds.
  • SpaceX SpaceX on x
    Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Announces Pricing of Initial Public Offering
  • @chamath Chamath Palihapitiya on x
    https://x.com/...
  • @spacex @spacex on x
    Teams are go for launch with a $135 price per share for the SpaceX IPO
  • @danprimack Dan Primack on x
    Does SpaceX end today as one of the five largest companies by market cap (knocking out Amazon — currently at $2.6t)?
  • @danprimack Dan Primack on x
    If you view a typical IPO pop as 20%, then the “bar” for SpaceX is $162 — which is the current indicated open (although it's been falling)
  • @jason @jason on x
    Congratulations to the SpaceX team on all their extraordinary accomplishments and including so many folks in the IPO milestone. Excited to visit the moon base
  • @litcapital @litcapital on x
    The reason why you want a ~20% IPO pop on day 1 is to reward investors who helped make the IPO successful by committing to the order book Pricing perfectly with no pop only benefits the company and not the investors (in the short term). The stock could rip or tank in longer run
  • @biancoresearch Jim Bianco on x
    With SpaceX getting priced at $135 today, Bloomberg estimates Musk's net worth is now $970.5B Tomorrow, any pop above the IPO price (or a Tesla rally) could make him the first Trillionaire! [image]
  • @eastdakota Matthew Prince on x
    Anyone remember what $NET's IPO “pop” was? I like @matt_levine calling it “perfect” — to the penny. You have a lot more control of what happens when you price an IPO than it may seem. If @elonmusk turns out to have called it even close to perfect two weeks in advance... 🤯 [image]
  • @andrewcurran_ Andrew Curran on x
    SpaceX has excluded investors from China and Hong Kong from participating in its IPO, according to the NYT. The article also reports that OpenAI is likely to impose the same restrictions when it goes public. Given past statements from Anthropic, they may also do the same. [image]
  • @jimstewartson @jimstewartson on x
    You are expected to believe that it is a good investment to pay $135 for 1/13-billionth of a company that lost $5 billion last year. Read that again until you get it.
  • @elonmusk Elon Musk on x
    @chamath Interesting
  • @katie_roof Katie Roof on x
    IPO was decided in early December, right before my scoop. Reminds me of when I scooped Palantir direct listing right when it was decided, just 5 months before the debut!
  • @leadlagreport @leadlagreport on x
    Market basically rallying because Musk said hold off on hitting Iran again until the SpaceX IPO
  • @rmac18 Ryan Mac on x
    Remember when Elon Musk told investors that Twitter would 5x its revenue to $28 billion by 2028 and more than 4x its users to nearly 1 billion?  Well, that's no where near happening.  Instead he's made even loftier predictions for a much larger company that will go public tomm.  …
  • @garymarcus Gary Marcus on x
    For those about to invest in SpaceX, 1. Please don't say you weren't warned. You were. Many times, by many people. For many reasons. 2. Thousands of Elon's thousands future great-grand children will thank you for your donations.
  • @lexnfx Alexei Oreskovic on x
    This is gonna be a big story that @agarfinks hit...on the nose! 👃 “How many people think that they have bought into SpaceX, but they're actually just funding some dude's coke habit in Miami? The number is not zero,” said Anduril cofounder Matt Grimm https://fortune.com/...
  • @corytv Cory Johnson on x
    Can we say that Elon Musk has built one an extraordinary company. 🚀 And can we also say @SpaceX is not worth $1.75 trillion? Here's what must go right for #SpaceX to ever be worth this #IPO price — with the terrific @JulesHyman on @YahooFinance. https://finance.yahoo.com/...
  • @leevalueroach Lee Roach on x
    SpaceX is the most overhyped IPO of the decade and it will end exactly the way every overhyped IPO ends. Facebook IPO'd at $38 and traded under that for 15 months. Uber IPO'd at $45 and is still below that adjusted seven years later for a while. WeWork tried at $47 billion and
  • Pascal Duval Pascal Duval on linkedin
    SpaceX IPO is a resounding success.  Good for Elon.  Bravo to Wall street oligarchy.  Not so sure this is a good news for Main street investors who've …
  • @polycrisisnow @polycrisisnow on bluesky
    Such dystopian unimaginable wealth hoarding, oligarchy at its most disgusting.
  • @zaratustra @zaratustra on bluesky
    well done, population of earth.  we've made a single man rich beyond the understanding of any individual human, which I assume is what we were trying to do www.reuters.com/business/med...
  • @larryneufeldsk Larry Neufeld on bluesky
    If this one guy was taxed properly the public funds generated would be of enormous benefit to many: SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire www.reuters.com/business/med...
  • @kimmasters Kim Masters on bluesky
    There's a trillion suckers born every minute.  —  www.washingtonpost.com/technology/ 2...
  • @breakify @breakify on bluesky
    Pretty sure that's still not enough money to protect you from 8 billion people.
  • r/news r on reddit
    SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire
  • r/Anticonsumption r on reddit
    SpaceX IPO just made Elon Musk the world's first trillionare.
  • r/offbeat r on reddit
    NEWSMAKER SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire
  • r/stupidpol r on reddit
    NEWSMAKER SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire
  • r/Economics r on reddit
    SpaceX IPO makes Elon Musk the world's first trillionaire
  • r/news r on reddit
    Musk's SpaceX prices record $75 billion IPO at $135 a share
  • r/worldnews r on reddit
    SpaceX's IPO Raises $75 Billion in Biggest Debut of All Time
  • r/SpaceXBets r on reddit
    SpaceX Raises $75 Billion in Record-Breaking IPO, Valued at $1.8 Trillion - Bloomberg