AI adoption follows the J-curve path of general-purpose tech, like early US factory electrification, requiring years of investment before noticeable ROI gains
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- As token prices go up we're going to see more think pieces about why the ROI isn't matching expectations. — I agree with the comparisons to electricity and the internet. It took years from adoption for these obviously transformative technologies to transform industries and only after significant realignment within companies. … @carnage4life@mas.to · Dare Obasanjo
- @Techmeme — That assumes LLM will go the way of successful tech, rather than the equally likely forgotten failed, overpriced tech of yore: Segway, Microsoft Vista, Betamax, Amazon Fire, hardwired picture telephones, Digital Audio Tapes (I was sure it would revolutionize), jetpacks, flying cars, the Edsel. … @pattykimura@beige.party
Discussion
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@pmarca
Marc Andreessen
on x
Many people are saying.
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@azeem
Azeem Azhar
on x
You won't get ROI from AI by giving everyone a chatbot and leaving the company unchanged.
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@chrishayduk
Chris Hayduk
on x
GPTs are GPTs, and deploying them in a way that maximizes productivity growth is highly non-trivial This is the exact idea behind the FDE team at OpenAI - we aim to drive maximum possible returns for our clients by reimagining workflows from the ground up with agents in mind
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@dropalltables
Kevin Patrick Mahaffey
on x
Invention and diffusion are separate concepts. We will have 10-20 years of work to realize the benefits of the AI that's already here. It won't be overnight. Spending a bunch of money on tokens does not a process re-engineer.
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@azeem
Azeem Azhar
on x
A general-purpose technology can sit inside firms for ages before we see the results. It happened with electricity, it's happening with AI. [image]
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@sarthakgh
Sar Haribhakti
on x
“Erik Brynjolfsson calls this the productivity J-curve: general-purpose technologies are a drag in their early years because firms have to make complementary intangible investments before the gains materialize.” [image]
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@danshipper
Dan Shipper
on x
Extremely smart take on the tokenmaxxing panic and why it won't last:
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@shreyasd
Shreyas
on bluesky
What is the curve called which just keeps dipping? — How many technologies have not followed J curve? — Any statistics?
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@disabilitystor1
Aparna Nair
on bluesky
There is no other industry, surely, where this mealy mouthed paragraph, void of any real measure, is presented as proof of ‘value’ and/or success? [embedded post]
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@bwnash
Brian
on bluesky
Meanwhile, tensor processors are on a 3 year depreciation schedule and are nearly 40% of data center costs. Tick tock! — My heart will burst with joy if adoption takes so long, the worst humans ever to live lose absolutely existential amounts of money, and the infrastructure h…
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@edzitron.com
Ed Zitron
on bluesky
How many of these fucked up apologia pieces are we going to get before they give up [embedded post]
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@notthatadamlevine
Adam Levine
on bluesky
PC productivity gains didn't show up until the mid-90s. Don't expect this to be different. [embedded post]