AI adoption follows the J-curve path of general-purpose tech, like early US factory electrification, requiring years of investment before noticeable ROI gains
A framework to understand your firm's AI transformation — I had tea with a senior exec at a well-known public tech company last month.
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- @Techmeme — That assumes LLM will go the way of successful tech, rather than the equally likely forgotten failed, overpriced tech of yore: Segway, Microsoft Vista, Betamax, Amazon Fire, hardwired picture telephones, Digital Audio Tapes (I was sure it would revolutionize), jetpacks, flying cars, the Edsel. … @pattykimura@beige.party
- As token prices go up we're going to see more think pieces about why the ROI isn't matching expectations. — I agree with the comparisons to electricity and the internet. It took years from adoption for these obviously transformative technologies to transform industries and only after significant realignment within companies. … @carnage4life@mas.to · Dare Obasanjo
Discussion
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@pmarca
Marc Andreessen
on x
Many people are saying.
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@azeem
Azeem Azhar
on x
You won't get ROI from AI by giving everyone a chatbot and leaving the company unchanged.
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@chrishayduk
Chris Hayduk
on x
GPTs are GPTs, and deploying them in a way that maximizes productivity growth is highly non-trivial This is the exact idea behind the FDE team at OpenAI - we aim to drive maximum possible returns for our clients by reimagining workflows from the ground up with agents in mind
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@dropalltables
Kevin Patrick Mahaffey
on x
Invention and diffusion are separate concepts. We will have 10-20 years of work to realize the benefits of the AI that's already here. It won't be overnight. Spending a bunch of money on tokens does not a process re-engineer.
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@azeem
Azeem Azhar
on x
A general-purpose technology can sit inside firms for ages before we see the results. It happened with electricity, it's happening with AI. [image]
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@sarthakgh
Sar Haribhakti
on x
“Erik Brynjolfsson calls this the productivity J-curve: general-purpose technologies are a drag in their early years because firms have to make complementary intangible investments before the gains materialize.” [image]
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@danshipper
Dan Shipper
on x
Extremely smart take on the tokenmaxxing panic and why it won't last:
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@notthatadamlevine
Adam Levine
on bluesky
PC productivity gains didn't show up until the mid-90s. Don't expect this to be different. [embedded post]
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@pmarca
Marc Andreessen
on x
This is an interesting theory, but one may worry that the inefficient and broken sectors of the economy will simply eat up any dark economic surplus, the same way they did during the computer revolution. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ... [image]
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@nemodi
Nat Emodi
on x
“We are at risk of having an event on the scale of the Industrial Revolution where most of the new output is invisible even as businesses spend increasingly large amounts on AI services.”
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@semianalysis_
@semianalysis_
on x
AI Dark Output: The Visible Cost of Invisible Output Why AI's increasing output is going to be one of the hardest economic measurement problems in history. AI “Dark Output” could end up being the majority of economic activity, but a challenge to measure. https://newsletter.semian…
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@smuku98
@smuku98
on x
GitHub Copilot's switch to token-based billing reveals the hidden economics of AI code completion. Flat monthly pricing was masking massive cost variance: power users consuming 10-100x more tokens than casual users. The new model makes unit economics visible but breaks the user […
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@thryse.com
Kait Richardson
on bluesky
We've arrived at faith-based industry. [embedded post]
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@justhere4coffee
@justhere4coffee
on bluesky
How desperate is this claim?
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@emote-control
@emote-control
on bluesky
Resting the entire economy on the rock-solid foundation of an imaginary metric that even its believers admit they can't substantiate. — Great idea. This one's going in the history books. Under “comically stupid boondoggles”.
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@edzitron.com
Ed Zitron
on bluesky
So glad @iwriteok.bsky.social introduced me to Loopholism [embedded post]
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@disabilitystor1
Aparna Nair
on bluesky
There is no other industry, surely, where this mealy mouthed paragraph, void of any real measure, is presented as proof of ‘value’ and/or success? [embedded post]
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@edzitron.com
Ed Zitron
on bluesky
How many of these fucked up apologia pieces are we going to get before they give up [embedded post]
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@bwnash
Brian
on bluesky
Meanwhile, tensor processors are on a 3 year depreciation schedule and are nearly 40% of data center costs. Tick tock! — My heart will burst with joy if adoption takes so long, the worst humans ever to live lose absolutely existential amounts of money, and the infrastructure h…