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Chronicles

The story behind the story

days · browse · Enter similar · o open

AI adoption follows the J-curve path of general-purpose tech, like early US factory electrification, requiring years of investment before noticeable ROI gains

A framework to understand your firm's AI transformation  —  I had tea with a senior exec at a well-known public tech company last month.

Exponential View

Discussion

  • @pmarca Marc Andreessen on x
    Many people are saying.
  • @azeem Azeem Azhar on x
    You won't get ROI from AI by giving everyone a chatbot and leaving the company unchanged.
  • @chrishayduk Chris Hayduk on x
    GPTs are GPTs, and deploying them in a way that maximizes productivity growth is highly non-trivial This is the exact idea behind the FDE team at OpenAI - we aim to drive maximum possible returns for our clients by reimagining workflows from the ground up with agents in mind
  • @dropalltables Kevin Patrick Mahaffey on x
    Invention and diffusion are separate concepts. We will have 10-20 years of work to realize the benefits of the AI that's already here. It won't be overnight. Spending a bunch of money on tokens does not a process re-engineer.
  • @azeem Azeem Azhar on x
    A general-purpose technology can sit inside firms for ages before we see the results. It happened with electricity, it's happening with AI. [image]
  • @sarthakgh Sar Haribhakti on x
    “Erik Brynjolfsson calls this the productivity J-curve: general-purpose technologies are a drag in their early years because firms have to make complementary intangible investments before the gains materialize.” [image]
  • @danshipper Dan Shipper on x
    Extremely smart take on the tokenmaxxing panic and why it won't last:
  • @notthatadamlevine Adam Levine on bluesky
    PC productivity gains didn't show up until the mid-90s.  Don't expect this to be different.  [embedded post]
  • @pmarca Marc Andreessen on x
    This is an interesting theory, but one may worry that the inefficient and broken sectors of the economy will simply eat up any dark economic surplus, the same way they did during the computer revolution. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ... [image]
  • @nemodi Nat Emodi on x
    “We are at risk of having an event on the scale of the Industrial Revolution where most of the new output is invisible even as businesses spend increasingly large amounts on AI services.”
  • @semianalysis_ @semianalysis_ on x
    AI Dark Output: The Visible Cost of Invisible Output Why AI's increasing output is going to be one of the hardest economic measurement problems in history. AI “Dark Output” could end up being the majority of economic activity, but a challenge to measure. https://newsletter.semian…
  • @smuku98 @smuku98 on x
    GitHub Copilot's switch to token-based billing reveals the hidden economics of AI code completion. Flat monthly pricing was masking massive cost variance: power users consuming 10-100x more tokens than casual users. The new model makes unit economics visible but breaks the user […
  • @thryse.com Kait Richardson on bluesky
    We've arrived at faith-based industry.  [embedded post]
  • @justhere4coffee @justhere4coffee on bluesky
    How desperate is this claim?
  • @emote-control @emote-control on bluesky
    Resting the entire economy on the rock-solid foundation of an imaginary metric that even its believers admit they can't substantiate.  —  Great idea.  This one's going in the history books.  Under “comically stupid boondoggles”.
  • @edzitron.com Ed Zitron on bluesky
    So glad @iwriteok.bsky.social introduced me to Loopholism [embedded post]
  • @disabilitystor1 Aparna Nair on bluesky
    There is no other industry, surely, where this mealy mouthed paragraph, void of any real measure, is presented as proof of ‘value’ and/or success? [embedded post]
  • @edzitron.com Ed Zitron on bluesky
    How many of these fucked up apologia pieces are we going to get before they give up [embedded post]
  • @bwnash Brian on bluesky
    Meanwhile, tensor processors are on a 3 year depreciation schedule and are nearly 40% of data center costs.  Tick tock!  —  My heart will burst with joy if adoption takes so long, the worst humans ever to live lose absolutely existential amounts of money, and the infrastructure h…