Polymarket is making it harder to use VPNs to access its service, blocking some IPs and suspicious accounts, and is asking some customers to identify themselves
In Russia, making bets on Polymarket isn't permitted by the popular online prediction market's rules.
Context & Ripple Effects
Polymarket has already tightened access in response to jurisdictional pressure: it blocked trading in France amid a regulatory inquiry, and an Argentine court ordered restrictions that added to a list of more than 30 unavailable countries.
The company’s India operations have persisted despite a government advisory characterizing prediction markets as illegal, while prior reporting described a U.S. investigation over alleged access by U.S. users. The new VPN and identity checks show enforcement moving from country-level blocking toward controls aimed at individual access routes.
First-order effects
- Users attempting to access Polymarket from Russia through certain VPN IP addresses, or accounts flagged as suspicious, face reduced access; some customers must now identify themselves.
- Polymarket gains a more active mechanism for enforcing its own Russia restriction rather than relying solely on stated user-location rules.
Second-order effects
- VPN-based access becomes less reliable for users in restricted jurisdictions, increasing the practical value of identity and account signals in Polymarket’s compliance process.
- The move creates a clearer operating contrast with prediction-market access in India, where Polymarket and Kalshi were reported to remain available despite the advisory, and raises pressure on platforms to show that geographic rules are enforceable.
Third-order effects
- If repeated across jurisdictions, prediction-market platforms may shift from broad geoblocks toward layered access controls combining IP screening, account monitoring, and customer identification.
- That shift could make market availability increasingly jurisdiction-specific: platforms may preserve service where permitted while accepting lower participation and more friction in places where regulators or platform rules prohibit access.
The trend: Prediction markets are moving from open internet distribution toward more granular, compliance-led control of where—and by whom—their markets can be used.