Discussion

• @bonkdacarnivore @bonkdacarnivore on x

  I've been on this for a while. “Prediction markets” are just a way for insiders to trade non-public information, which is a problem all its own. The larger issue, however, is that in a society where we've either gamified everything, turned it into a casino or made everything a

• @peterwildeford Peter Wildeford on x

  People like me have been behind correctly calibrating all future events. It's been thankless work that's been wrongly attributed to the “crowd” (who are idiots). I'm happy to finally be recognized. You're welcome.

• @robinhanson Robin Hanson on x

  Yes that's the way it has long worked in most financial markets. We could instead directly subsidize such markets, in which case we wouldn't have to tax all those uniformed traders.

• @benshindel Ben on x

  (1) yes, this is how markets work (2) rediscovers the pareto principle: obv a small % of people will capture a large % of value (3) how is this “not the wisdom of crowds”? 3% still = 1000s of traders (4) with *only* the informed traders, the market would be far less accurate!

• @barneyflames @barneyflames on x

  More proof that prediction markets are fake, the information content mostly comes from insider trading, not wisdom of the crowds.

• @tunguz Bojan Tunguz on x

  Interesting. Still bullish on betting markets as a prognostication tool. But they do take a heavy toll on average an average user.

• @rgomezcram Roberto Gomez Cram on x

  Polymarket prices are highly accurate in predicting future events. The source of that accuracy is less obvious. In a new working paper, we find it is not the “wisdom of crowds,” but a small minority of informed traders. Fewer than 3% of accounts appear to drive price discovery; […