As weather betting grows on prediction markets, climate experts are debating whether it improves forecasts by aggregating knowledge or is simply a zero-sum game
From Kalshi and Polymarket to niche scientific platforms, traders are predicting the weather — and climate experts are debating the results.
My analysis below was cited in today's Bloomberg article, Weather prediction markets are booming. Can they improve forecasts? https://www.bloomberg.com/...
Weather bets on prediction markets like @Polymarket & @Kalshi are booming and attracting all kinds of bettors: normies, weather nerds, AI tech firms. But as the money flows, a debate is growing. Is this crowdsourcing making better weather forecasts or is it just gambling on the
From New York snowfall to global temperatures, people are betting on the weather. But can markets like Kalshi and Polymarket actually improve forecasts? https://www.bloomberg.com/...
The players range from novices to experts. One 23-year-old German law student is currently the sixth-highest profit earner ever on @Polymarket's weather markets. Meanwhile, AI startups like @WindBorneWx and Jua are trading to test their own models. 🎁 https://www.bloomberg.com/...